The appointment of Dmitry Patrushev Minister of Agriculture, perhaps, was the main hit formed on the eve of the Cabinet. The son of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev spent eight years at the head of the state-owned Rosselkhozbank (RSHB), that is, he directed strategic investments in the national projects of the agro-industrial complex. His transition to the civil service externally may seem logical and even correct.
Who, if not the person, who credits the agricultural production, should know about the real problems of the industry and the mechanisms for their elimination? In this case, and the lack of experience in governance seems to be a shortcoming that will correct time.
However, from the bank Patrushev, Jr., definitely, does not go away with his head held high. The fact that the size of the credit portfolio Rosselkhozbank for the past two years has already significantly exceeded its capital, everyone knows in the financial market. Disputes are only about the extent of this gap - in the range of 700 billion to 1 trillion rubles.
The true state of affairs in the bank with the departure of Patrushev, however, we should not know in the foreseeable future - information about problem loans this spring was classified by the 2nd department of the "K" Directorate of the SEB FSB, which carries out counterintelligence support of the country's credit and financial system and supervises The Central Bank. For the preservation of complete confidentiality, seconded officers of the Central Directorate of Security and Information Security of the Bank of Russia are responsible.
Loyal supervision over Rosselkhozbank by the Central Bank, zealously sweeping the financial sector, has long outraged many bankers. Like, while they are deprived of licenses for violations of the 115-FZ and forced to form huge reserves for loans, where the slightest delay is allowed, the RSHB avoids in principle any prescriptions.
The State Bank is not simply protected from strict regulation, but also filled with money: in the winter the government once again capitalized Rosselkhozbank. True, the 30 billion rubles allocated from the budget for subsidizing interest rates on preferential loans, taking into account the scale of problems in the bank, are more reminiscent of the procedure for transfusion of blood to a patient with leukemia.
And the fact that the patient is seriously ill, even employees of the Central Bank are recognized.
And Patrushev's successor, no matter whoever this person turns out to be, will have a very difficult task in the next year and a half: cover the back of the secretary of the Security Council's son, preparing the RSHB for the inevitable "recovery."
It is with this gloomy prospect in the administration of the president and the government that the new appointment of Patrushev is first and foremost, calling him "evacuation".
The decision, according to our sources, matured for more than a year.
At first Patrushev was actively trying to win the position of chairman of the board of Gazprom (which aroused concern among a large part of the elites), then they sought a place in the renewed Promsvyazbank, which as a result fell to another "son" - Peter Fradkov (his father was led by the SVR, and earlier the government) . Only at the beginning of this spring Patrushev was agreed to the post of agricultural minister.
However, even this variant of rotation initially caused concern in the Old Square: Patrushev's expressive approach to the realization of state tasks required insurance. And it was only in early May that an elegant decision was found - to appoint Aleksei Gordeev as vice-premier supervising the agricultural block. This experienced official, who headed the Ministry of Agriculture back in the time of Mikhail Kasyanov, was the author of the current program for the development of the agro-industrial complex. Thanks to the patronage of former Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, the last years of the board of directors of Gazprom, Gordeyev and his colleague Sergei Dankvert (the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor) laid the foundation for the industry for many years.
In fact, the former ministers Skrynnik, Fedorov and Tkachev only followed the vectors drawn by their predecessor.
Dmitry Patrushev, too, will try not to spoil the furrows, though, under the supervision of Gordeev.
The current minister seems to retain under his direct control subsidizing the interest rate on commercial loans and agricultural insurance. These types of state support in recent years have come to the forefront thanks to the position of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who in the renewed government went on promotion and became the first vice-premier.
Experts agree that state support for agriculture will dramatically increase by 2020, since the industry today is rightfully considered the main driver of the Russian economy.
This is indicated by the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service: in 2017, the volume of agricultural exports amounted to just under $ 18 billion, which already significantly exceeded the volume of military-industrial exports ($ 13.4 billion). The seizure of the share in the country's GDP by agriculture is conditioned by the current situation: unlike the same Rosoboronexport, because of the sanctions pressure of losing favorable contracts, the AIC increases its penetration to foreign markets every quarter.
And this process seems to be irreversible: the global demand for food products, according to the forecasts of the Food and Agriculture Organization, will increase by 50% in the next twenty years with a 30% increase in population. Consequently, the volume of agricultural production will increase one and a half times.
Russia in this market, judging by the instructions of the president, should take a special place - by 2025 agroexport is planned to increase to 35-40 billion dollars.
So the irony about the future of Patrushev, Jr. in the government looks at least inappropriate. He seems to be trying on the laurels of the leader of the Russian economy.
Of course, with the right support of Alexey Gordeev, Sergei Dankvert, and most importantly - Father and Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, contrary to rumors, which retained a significant influence on current political processes.