In anticipation of economic sanctions by the US against the Russian business it became clear that Alisher Usmanov rid of US assets. At the head of USM Advisors (manages the assets of billionaire) Ivan Streshinsky said last week that the entrepreneur has sold Apple stock and gradually reduce its share to Facebook.
Such a sharp change in investor sentiment, actively and successfully invest in the telecommunications industry, it seemed to analysts is very strange, especially since he bought Apple stock to $ 100 million less than a year ago and then claimed that he believes in the future of the iPhone and iPad maker. Although we can not say that he came out of Apple shares without profit: in the last year they rose by more than 20%. As for Facebook, the Alisher Usmanov covered their cost of buying shares in the social network, and even earned $ 500 million from "above" is already in the company's IPO. Out of US assets, and primarily because of Apple shares, directly related to the possible imposition of sanctions by the US, experts believe.
A parallel world
Washington is keeping a secret, which is & quot; in trouble, "he is preparing, but investors are already thinking about how to protect their own business in North America." I have just returned from the United States, the cooling in relations is felt. My counterparts even canceled several meetings, citing the unstable situation ", - said Vladimir Kanin, author of several start-ups in the United States and founder of the service Mobile acquiring Pay-Me While it is unlikely that the Obama administration will go to tough sanctions against business as affected. including American interests, he said not to mention the fact that big business today is international:. many Russian companies operating in the uS market, have a "registration" in Western Europe, for example, the Parallels and Acronis Both were created.. Russian businessman Sergei Belousov, to date, have a turnover amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, technical development offices are located in Russia, and sales offices and main buyers -. in the US the same the Parallels, although it is "Russian", but registered in Switzerland among its shareholders mean since 2005Xia several internationally renowned venture capital funds, in particular, Bessemer Venture Partners, Insight Venture Partners and Intel Capital. "In the business of the US sanctions and the EU can not in any way affect a number of reasons. Firstly, because we are not a Russian company, and we are not in Russia are the main markets. Second, because we are developing software and do not do arms or pump oil - explains spokesman Parallels Moscow office -. Our sales are not connected with the public sector, and most of them are online business, not offline in general, at the moment it is very difficult to imagine the sanctions, which could have long-term. negative consequences for the business of IT-companies of Russia. "
The founder of Acronis, senior partner of the fund Runa Capital, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Parallels Serguei Beloussov believes that "most IT-companies working out of politics, so we do not expect serious problems for the IT-business." But representatives of other sectors not so sure of the integrity of its assets in US contracts.
With arms at the gas station
Recently, the Stockholm Institute for ASCsedovaniya Peace (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI) published a progress report on the status of weapons and military equipment for the period from 2009 to 2013, major weapons supplier to the international market were the United States with 29% of the total supply, the second place was taken Russia (27%). We are talking about sums in the tens of billions of dollars a year, so theoretically, sanctions could seriously hit by the military-industrial complex of our country.
Although there is one "but": in only three intended for the past five years, Russia has sold weapons and military equipment to 52 countries, but almost two thirds of exports. India accounted for 38% of all Russian exports, the share of Chinese purchases is 12%, Algeria - 11%. Overall, 65% of Russian exports fell to the countries of Asia and Oceania, 14% of the production went to Africa, 10% - to the Middle East. That is to influence buyers Washington will likely not be able to. However, there is a contract signed directly with the US. It involves the supply of military transport helicopters Mi-17V-5 for the needs of the US Army in Afghanistan for $ 345 million.
Talk about the fact that the contract needs to be broken and without the situation around Ukraine, has been going on for nearly two years. The fact that the US Congress to lobby for their own arms producers. But in spite of their opposition, the first batch of helicopters was delivered to customers in February 2014. "The contract is very beneficial to the Pentagon and financially and technically. Afghanistan needs is our machines, their pilots to easily learn how to work on them. The contract was signed officially, it is completely transparent and there is no reason to interrupt its other major contracts with the US does not have. "- he said the" Co "is the official representative of" Rosoboronexport "Vyacheslav Davidenko. At the same time, he noted that at the present time, the United States has not yet announced any sanctions on its companies. "We hope that this will not happen We are a major player in the arms market and often tough competition is therefore classified sanctions will always be regarded by us as a manifestation of unfair competition..", - The expert concludes.
Meanwhile, individual companies and without sanctions Washington SMOsvstvovali the consequences of the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation. So, filling under the brand of "Lukoil" in the United States have come to the picket Ukraine. They call on the Americans to abandon the Russian gas. This position raises a smile from an authorized representative of "Lukoil" Dmitry Dolgov: "Petrol gas station on US does not come directly from Russia, we buy it in the US in the wholesale market." With regard to the serious damage to the company, this kind of action it will not cause, in spite of the fact that "Lukoil" in America about 350 filling stations. Fuel Sales - not the main activity of the company, its business - production and sale of oil, stressed Dmitry Dolgov. With regard to the pickets in the US, it can strike at ordinary Americans, who are the managers of petrol stations (in the US it is usually a family business). As an example, Dmitry Dolgov leading Polish and Ukrainian markets, where Russian companies after the events around Crimea are unfriendly. But, according to the statistics, it had no effect on sales.
"Lukoil" was probably the first Russianth company who entrenched in the United States. In 2000, the co-owner Vagit Alekperov, for $ 71 million bought the loss-making US gas stations network of Getty Petroleum Marketing, there are about 1,300 gas stations. In 2004 he bought in addition from ConocoPhillips has 795 gas stations for $ 265.75 million. However, the project has not justified, he brought losses due to lack of refineries, and in 2008, "Lukoil" began the sale of the gas station. Over the past five years, the number of gas stations was reduced by approximately seven times.
Trade sanctions by the US against Russian steel companies - is not new, it is sufficient to recall anti-dumping investigation of the early 2000s regarding our metallurgists. US virtually closed market for steelmakers in Russia, introducing strict quotas for the supply of the metal. And in order to enter the US market, the Russians had to seriously invest by buying local companies themselves. The first to take this step resolved "Norilsk Nickel" Vladimir Potanin. In 2003, the company bought about $ 365 million for 55.4% of the shares of the largest US producer of platinum group metals Stillwater Mining. But American authorities considered that the trackie to limit the influence of the Russian investor in a single palladium producer in the United States. Vladimir Potanin is not even able to hold the board of directors of their representatives. Seven years later, he sold the company. However, the purchase was justified: by palladium price growth package has been implemented in two and a half times more expensive, nearly $ 1 billion now, "Norilsk Nickel" in Pennsylvania registered "daughter" - Norilsk Nickel USA, while the "Interros" - New York. -yorksky fund private equity Altpoint Capital Partners, which invests in energy, telecom, industry, and business services (fund is co-owner of companies such as AmQuip Crane Rental, Anaraq, ByteGrid Holdings, Globe energy Services, Pyote Water Solutions, Resources Acquisition, Vazata) . In 2010, the New York Post reported as fund buying modeling agency Ford Models. Will Altpoint curtail their investments, it is not yet clear. In the "Interros" refused to comment on this topic.
In "Severstal" Alexey Mordashov and NLMK Vladimir Lisin at the North American continent, there are three companies. "We do not feel the aggravation of the political situation", - said, "Ko" in "Severstal". Around the Wellth most spoken and NLMK. Last year EBITDA of division "Severstal" in North America was the highest in the last three years ($ 92 million). This is despite the fact that EBITDA of "Severstal Russian Steel" has fallen from $ 298 to $ 289 million, however, the development of speech and does not go:. Last year Alexey Mordashov abandoned plans to build a plant for the production of granulated iron in North America. A "Mechel" Igor Zyuzin Yeshe from the middle of 2013 is trying to sell its coal mines in the United States ( "Keystone", "Energy Justice" and "Dynamic Energy"). The activities of some of the loss of business is suspended. How many lost businessman is difficult to say, but the purchase in 2009 of US assets has cost it $ 890 million.
Perhaps biting elbows and co-owner of "Alfa" Mikhail Fridman. After the sale of TNK-BP, he and his partners have invested $ 1.4 billion to US manufacturers laundry equipment and machines for tire inflation. And in December 2011, The Wall Street Journal reported that Friedman intends to create in the United States a fund that will invest in real estate of about $ 1 billion. Information about theWhether the fund and if it works created no longer appear.
From an investment point of view, the US market is attractive, stock indexes are regularly updating their highs. But for Russians it is too risky and no potential sanctions. In support of this statement, and may indicate the Press Secretary of the White House Jay Carney, recommended investors to avoid investments in Russian stocks or play on their slide. "In your place I would not currently invest in Russian stocks, unless you do not open short positions," - he said at a press conference. So Alisher Usmanov acts can be considered quite reasonable.
Secure and the Russian Central Bank. A mega-regulator, as they say in the market, in anticipation of possible sanctions from the US Federal Reserve brought more than $ 100 billion of Treasury bonds. "The volume of Russian investment in the US market is not so great, but investors are trying to reduce their assets in dollar accounts in US banks or clearing settlement companies - says the head of analytical department of the InvestCOMP ANIES "Univer Capital" Dmitry Alexandrov. - So they hedge the risks of possible arrest or restriction of the movement of funds on dollar bills. "
The most remarkable in the history with the release of Alisher Usmanov of Apple stock and Facebook - that's where he puts the money. This giant Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba and JD.com. "In the Chinese market accounts for about 70-80% of the total volume of our investments in foreign Internet companies", - declared Ivan Streshinsky. "The period of explosive growth of Apple and Facebook is over, so it makes sense to shift into assets with more interesting prospects, promise far greater earnings in the near future", - adds Vladimir Kanin.
Indeed, in mid-March, Alibaba Group Internet giant announced that the preparations for the IPO, which will be held at one of the US stock exchanges. Placement volume could reach more than $ 16 billion and become one of the largest in the world. By the way, Alisher Usmanov bought Facebook shares just before the official placement of securities on the stock exchange and, as has been said, not only pay back investments, but also earned about half a billion dollars. Perhaps it is in the sosecond scenario expects the Russian billionaire and now.
"The interest of Russian companies to China and Southeast Asia, there was a few years ago and in connection with the events in Ukraine, it could worsen." - Says the analyst Raiffeisenbank Andrey Polishchuk.
In the Middle Kingdom has many assets with high growth potential, experts admit. For example, online stores Aliexpress and Taobao. "If it comes to a serious confrontation with the United States in the first place will be interesting for large companies and those who focused on trade with Russia, -. Says Dmitry Alexandrov -. For example, of Sinopec's CNPC or". But Vladimir Kanin warns that because of the special mentality of Chinese entrepreneurs, and the entire Asian market, not all investors will be able to effectively invest money there. The most striking example is the Chinese real estate market, which even in Beijing for several years is called a true financial "bubble". Not to mention the fact that the yuan is tightly controlled by the government and there is free pricing as such, no. Literally a month later the government may allow the yuan more expensives (it is believed that it is undervalued by about 20%), and many enterprises will be uncompetitive.
electronic industry sector is also not without problems. In order to produce cell phone its own brand, not necessarily to buy in China manufacturing. Suffice it to agree with one of the producers, which will bring absolutely any model from the local components, and contract registration only takes a couple of days. Therefore, the Chinese market for Russian investors - it is still terra incognita. And suppose that the selling (closing) enterprises in the US because of the sanctions, the Russian business will run to invest to China, is not necessary. While there may be following the example of Alisher Usmanov someone and try to jump into the last car of the departing train.