On Wednesday, the Central Bank published the banks' reports for July. Vedomosti has studied the accounts of the five largest private banks - Alfa Bank, FC Otkritie, Promsvyazbank, Binbank and Moscow Credit Bank (IBC). The day before it became known that the employee of the MC Alfa Capital in August sent a letter to the clients of the company, in which he drew attention to the difficulties of four other banks, the situation with which can be "finally resolved" this fall. Regulators already became interested in this mailing.
In life there is always a place for closure
The biggest changes are in FC Opening. In July, 621 billion rubles flowed out of it, it follows from its reports on the Central Bank's website. The companies took 322.7 billion rubles from the bank for a month, most of the outflow came from state structures, Yury Belikov, a leading expert in Expert RA, said, but this did not stop there - the private sector also left the bank in the wake of negative information background. The population for a month withdrew 35.8 billion rubles from the FC Otkryt, follows from the bank's reports, other credit organizations took 262.9 billion rubles.
The main outflow of corporate clients' funds was planned, mostly clients who withdrew their funds due to the rating change, says Anatoly Predtechensky, managing director of FC Opening. There were also short-term deposits, including guarantee deposits and those that companies kept for subsequent dividend payments, he continues.
Out-of-schedule outflows accounted for about 20% of the funds that corporate customers took away, he notes.
The outflow of individuals' funds is associated with the departure of several large customers, their number was very limited: "The funds were kept by the management of those corporate clients who stopped placing deposits in the bank. Part of the deposits went away because of the general nervous situation in the market and the information attack on private banks, "says Predtechensky.
The bank paid with customers due to a stock of liquidity and raising funds from the Central Bank, he says.
On Wednesday, FC Opening announced a reduction in deposit rates for wealthy customers. Adjusted rates of ruble and dollar deposits for a period of two months to three years. The decrease was up to 0.4 percentage points, depending on the period and currency of investment. FC Opening has already reduced rates for retail customers on July 31, 2017, and before that twice in May (from 0.05 to 1.25 percentage points in all currencies and terms) following the central bank's key rate.
For a month, FC Otkritie raised 333.1 billion rubles from the regulator, the bank reports. For a similar amount (333.2 billion rubles.), Banks borrowed funds from the Central Bank through repo at a fixed rate.
Over the month, the portfolio of corporate loans declined by 38%, or 482 billion rubles. "This was achieved primarily through the closure of a portion of reverse repo transactions. In 2017, the bank maintained this portfolio at 400-600 billion rubles, and in July it fell to 162 billion rubles. "- says Belikov.
It seems that about half of the leaks from the "Discovery" 621 billion rubles. - These are rolled-up repo deals, it is not entirely correct to consider them as outflows, says Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov: these are mirror transactions, almost symmetrical in terms of assets and liabilities. A more accurate indicator of the outflow and the need for liquidity is the borrowing of funds from the Central Bank, as this is quite expensive money and banks resort to their use in the last place, says Danilov.
What happens to other banks
The other three listed in the letter "Alpha Capital" banks - ICD, Binbank and Promsvyazbank - there were no significant fluctuations.
In Binbank, company funds decreased by 4.5 billion to 198.9 billion rubles, from other credit organizations - by 18.5 billion to 74.5 billion rubles. Funds depositors, on the contrary, increased by 2.9 billion to 555.8 billion rubles.
But the bank is dependent on the stability of the client base - in the scenario of early withdrawal of funds, it will be able to pay no more than 8% of creditors as of August 1, or no more than 15% when withdrawing funds according to their repayment schedule, Belikov notes.
At the ICB for a month, company funds grew by 90.3 billion rubles, the population - by 4.4 billion. The funds of credit organizations increased by 158 billion rubles. "The bank's loan portfolio also added more than 250 billion rubles. It seems very likely that part of the collapsed repo deals on the balance sheet of the" Discovery "has shifted to the balance of the ICB," says Danilov.
There were no significant outflows in Promsvyazbank either, Belikov said. For a month, the companies took 11.7 billion rubles. (561.6 billion rubles remained in the bank), the funds of individuals grew by 1.4 billion to 397.4 billion rubles. The funds of banks grew by 4.33 billion to 63.5 billion rubles. "Liquid assets cover 23.5% of borrowed funds, current liquidity allows paying more than 20% of creditors for a month, even with early withdrawal of funds," Belikov said.
On August 16, the press service of Alfa-Capital said that a note distributed among clients about possible problems of four banks is "the personal point of view of an individual employee" and it "does not correspond to the position of the company". At the same time, Alfa-Capital Management Company does not have any non-public negative information regarding the above-mentioned group of banks.
Alfa-Bank said that it does not have any reliable data on the problems in these banks. "We are convinced that the information about the allegedly unstable situation of a number of Russian banks, contained in Alfa Capital's client mailing, is a purely private opinion of the company's manager and is not true," the press service of Alfa-Bank said.
The employee of the MC Alfa-Capital, who sent the letter, was invited to a conversation with the Central Bank.
FAS asked Alfa Capital for information on its actions to "identify possible signs of violation of the law." The company must provide information before August 21.
"Compared to the previous reporting periods, the financial condition of these banks has not changed fundamentally, except for the outflows of FC Otkritie," says Pavel Samiev, managing director of the NRA. However, the negative information background around the banks does not subside, and this may still affect the reporting that banks will publish in August, he notes.
"We do not see outflows in August, we have inflows, on the contrary," Vladimir Chubar told Vedomosti. A representative of Promsvyazbank said that client funds are moderately growing in August: "The market did not believe the provocations". The representative of the "Discovery" says that in August the situation stabilized, but customers ask questions in connection with the ongoing information attack. The representative of Binbank did not answer the questions.
The yields of subordinated bonds of banks, which attracted the attention of the analyst of Alfa Capital, grew during the day. With the release of FC Opening for $ 500 million until 2019, the yield to 20.00 from Tuesday rose from 10.15 to 10.23%. The yield of Promsvyazbank's issue of $ 600 million with maturity to 2019 - from 7.82 to 8.5% at 20.00, from the ICD - from 10.58 to 11.15%. The short issue of ICD subordinates with maturity in 2018 for the day increased the yield to 4.1% from 4.3%. The yield of subordinated bonds of Alfa-Bank for $ 750 million until 2019 grew slightly in a day - from 3.72 to 3.75% at 20.00 Moscow time.
According to the reports, Alfa-Bank is also working steadily. In July, it had an influx of deposits from both the population (10.6 billion to 734 billion rubles.) And from companies - by 109 billion to 783.8 billion rubles. Over the past month, the bank has reduced its debt to the Central Bank from 36 billion to 4.7 billion rubles.