Oleg Deripaska is scared of the strong ruble

Strengthening of the ruble by 7%, the risks of volatility in aluminum prices and changes in the electricity and capacity market: these are the objective risks for Deripaska's companies.
In the first decade of November En + can become a public company, it follows from her message. "Vedomosti" managed to get acquainted with the documents of En + for future investors, as well as with the risks that the company sees.

For example, the main macroeconomic risk is the strengthening of the ruble by more than 7% of what is included in the development model. By 2021, En + believes, the dollar will cost 64.8 rubles. The average rate for the next year the company expects at the level of 56.8 rubles per dollar.

The main market risk for En + is a change in the price of aluminum (the company owns 48.13% of its producer UC Rusal). Every one percent of the deviation in metal prices leads to a 2% rise or fall in EBITDA, the company writes. By 2021, UC Rusal expects the aluminum price to rise to $ 2150 per ton (the average is expected to be $ 1938 per ton in 2017), and the premium to the price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) will grow to $ 300 per ton, while now for immediate delivery of LME warehouses give $ 100 to a ton. Another En + fears regulatory changes in the electricity and capacity market, as well as an increase in the tax burden on the sector.

Bank-organizer of the placement of En + on the London Stock Exchange - VTB Capital. In documents, future investors note that the owners of En + estimate the company at $ 9-12 billion. Based on the fact that the shareholders expect to attract $ 1.5 billion from the placement, 12.5-16.7% of the company's package may be sold at the exchange. Representative En + refused to comment on this.

When evaluating the value of En +, the bank-organizer used, after deduction of the debt, the forecast EBITDA for 2018 ($ 3.5 billion), applied the multiplier 6-6.5x, and gave a discount of 5-10%, and also added projected dividends from 48.1% stake in UC Rusal and 100% of the free cash flow of energy assets En +, according to the documents for the placement.

In a statement, En + said that the company expects at least $ 250 million in dividends, but payments to shareholders may be more - from $ 450 to $ 600 million, according to documents to the IPO. At the same time, the dividend yield in 2018-2019. may amount to 4-5%, and by 2020-2021. - grow up to 5-7%, the company points out.

All this is feasible with the growth of prices for aluminum. This will be possible with a decrease in aluminum stocks in the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses to 1.1 million tons by 2021 (now they are about 1.7 million tons). The formation of a deficit in the market in 2019-2020 will also help. on 2,7-2,5 million tons of aluminum, respectively. Now the deficit is estimated at 1.2 million tons, while in 2015 there was a surplus of 400,000 tons.

When entering the London Stock Exchange (where the company intends to place shares and then issue shares on the Moscow GDR exchange), En + will change its structure. Energy assets En + will be controlled through a 100% subsidiary - LLC En + Management. Now the energy assets belong to the company directly. The company does not disclose the meaning of the restructuring.

Net consolidated debt of En + the company estimates at $ 13.5 billion, and the debt load of 6 EBITDA. Without taking into account the debt that UC Rusal attracted to buy 27.8% of Norilsk Nickel in 2007, net debt is lower - $ 7.6 billion, and the debt burden is 2.6 EBITDA, En + explains to investors.

Last year, the consolidated EBITDA of En + was $ 2.3 billion, in 2017 it is expected at $ 3.2 billion, the company expects 40% growth due to rising aluminum prices, now the company is now receiving $ 830 from EBITDA with one ton of metal. By 2021, EBITDA of the whole En + will grow to $ 4.4 billion (almost in two), the company predicts, with each ton of aluminum En + will receive $ 1100 EBITDA, the documents note.