Prediction: Rosneft will have the most difficult year

The peak of loan payments for the company will be in 2015.
In the "Rosneft" stories in 2013 was a record year and turning both in terms of achieving high production and financial performance, as well as from the perspective of strategic initiatives that define the dynamics of the company and the industry as a whole for decades to come ", - stated in the President's address "Rosneft" Igor Sechin to the shareholders of the company in last year's report. Indeed, the state-owned company bought TNK-BP, "Itera" share in "Sibneftegaz" and "TAAs-Yuryakh oil and gas" and a number of other assets. This allowed her to become the largest public company in terms of reserves and production of oil and gas.

In 2014, "Rosneft" has continued to buy up assets. It acquired the Orenburg Drilling Company, Weatherford business in Russia and Venezuela, the Bishkek Oil Company. The increasing complexity of conditions of oil development in other countries has led to the consolidation of the industry, this process is inevitable in Russia, she explained in May, Sechin.

But his plans were seriously adjusted first political situation, and then the drop in oil prices. In April Sechin came under US sanctions. A summer US and the EU have made tosanctions list itself "Rosneft". She now can not take long-term loans in the US and European banks. Companies from these countries it is forbidden to provide equipment and services for work in the Arctic, in the fields with hard oil and deepwater drilling projects.

That financial sanctions most strongly influenced the "Rosneft", says the analyst of "Sberbank CIB" Valery Nesterov. She has a huge debt - $ 58 billion at the end of 2013, "Rosneft" has repeatedly stated that it is able to service the debt on their own. Indeed, for the year the company paid to creditors nearly $ 19 billion. At the same time "Rosneft" in August, the first sought assistance from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), and in December it was able to quickly place bonds by 625 billion rubles.

Another attack - a drop in oil prices. From July to December Brent prices dropped almost by half.

"The company expects a very difficult next year", - predicts Nesterov. All attention will be focused on the reduction of its debt burden, adds UBS analyst Konstantin Cherepanov. In 2015, "Rosneft » need to return to banks $ 19.5 billion However, the company is waiting for the next tranche of the advance payment for the supply of oil by China's CNPC on the contract for the supply of oil from the 2013 total of its amount -.. about $ 270 billion About $ 18 billion it has already chosen, an additional $ 15 billion could get in I quarter of 2015, analysts predict Gazprombank. Advance payment will go to strategic projects rather than on the repayment of loans and promised to Sechin.

"Rosneft" does not disclose the formula for calculating the price of oil on the contract with CNPC. The price corresponds to the market (in June 2013 Brent cost $ 102.16 per barrel) at the time of the conclusion, according to the deputy head of equity research department "Veles Capital" Basil Tanurcov. Due to the drop in prices of oil will decrease the amount of the contract, an advance payment amount is not likely to change, he suggests. That is, in the future, if oil prices do not return to the levels reached at the time of conclusion of the contract, "Rosneft" will receive less than expected.

"The price of $ 60, we also satisfied," - said Sechin, although in September Sechin expected that the price of oil has fallen below $ 90 per barrel. "Of course, some costlyie projects we will have to postpone, "- said Sechin. The negative scenario for "Rosneft" - the price is much lower than $ 60 per barrel and the lack of state support for the project, says analyst "Uralsib Capital" Alexei Kokin.

At an oil price of $ 30 a barrel on the capex program money may not be enough - it will require a significant reduction, as much of the equipment is imported and the prices for it are fixed in dollars, believes Tanurcov. Payment of dividends for 2014, too, unlikely as taking into account the revaluation of foreign currency debt the company will receive damages, he continues. But Sechin sure that at the current level of oil will last only until mid-2015 and then start to grow and by the end of the year it will fluctuate around $ 70-75 per barrel.

The impact of sanctions will manifest itself in the medium and long term, said Nesterov. For example, the company announced the opening of a giant deposit the "Victory" in the Kara Sea (reserves - 130 million tons of oil and 499.2 billion cubic meters of C1 + C2 categories.). It was a joint project with ExxonMobil. But the US company withdrew from it. because oflow oil prices offshore projects would still have to be postponed, said Nesterov. He did not rule out the suspension of "Rosneft" LNG projects, under the threat of mining with a difficult oil.

In 2015, "Rosneft" will not be making major acquisitions, and the emphasis is on cost optimization, the director of the Small Letters Vitaly Kryukov. On the contrary, the company will seek buyers for minority stakes in new and existing projects. Share in the Vankor project has already promised the Chinese CNPC, another shareholder can become ONGC.

At the end of next year, predicts a decline in production Cherepanov "Rosneft" hydrocarbons 1%. In 2014, pre-make 250 million tons n. e. ( "Rosneft" data).

For a number of "Rosneft" parameter is now markedly inferior to western companies. It is not as flexible and not as effective as, for example, ExxonMobil or Chevron, its actions depend on the decisions of the state, said Nesterov: "Western companies in the current environment, for example, refuse to expensive projects, the" Rosneft "we still do not see it ". Investors for several years waiting for a long time«Rosneft»-term strategy. December 9 Board of Directors has approved it, but the exact numbers are not the company said. "Rosneft", "has a balanced portfolio of projects and a clear vision of its development," it quoted Sechin just words in a press release. "It's just a collection of words, slogans, but no specifics" - retorted Nesterov. "Rosneft" has yet to show itself as an effective commercial world-class enterprise, aimed at creating profits for shareholders, analysts conclude Gazprombank.