In the fall of Euromoney magazine named Elvira Nabiullina best manager of the Central Bank in the world, noting, inter alia, efforts to clean up the market of insolvent members. Bankers call this sweep the market itself Nabiullina prefers the term "recovery". However this process is called, the result is impressive.
Since July 2013, more than 200 have lost their licenses banks, only this year they have about 100 more were in the 90s. But then the banks were several times more.
Nabiullina promises to continue this policy. What resulted improvement in its prescription sector, versed "Vedomosti".
On July 1, 2013 revoked the license 204 credit organizations (the Central Bank data on 4 December), and 2015 was a record year for more than 10 years (see. Infographic). The representative of the Central Bank explained the acceleration of the withdrawal of licenses from banks "basically their involvement in money-laundering and the illegal withdrawal of funds abroad" - their focus on this business demanded "stringent application of supervisory response measures."
Reasons for revocation of licenses illustrate the consistent performance C8, 2014 - when, in 2012 for violation of anti-money laundering law was revoked one license, then in 2013: the withdrawal from the market of banks that violate the law on combating money laundering and involved in carrying out suspicious transactions, he said - 36, in 2015 - 33 (December 4). More it was only in 2006 and 2007. - 51 and 44.
Violation of anti-money laundering law was the basis for the deprivation of licenses in 37% of cases (24% in 2013, 42% in 2014 and 37% in 2015). The fight against "criminal" by and large banks started in 2014, in 2015 the intensity decreased slightly, including due to the fact that more licenses withdrawn for economic reasons (all other grounds can be grouped into this category) that can be attributed to the worsening situation in the economy and the banking sector, concludes a leading expert of the Center for the HSE Dmitry Miroshnichenko. "A similar campaign took place in the middle of the last decade," - he recalled. In 2006-2007. the economy grew, and 82% of banks were deprived of licenses for violation of anti-money laundering legislation.
The current campaign began in November 2013 with HTAva license from Master-Bank, whose financial problems were not, says Miroshnichenko. The Interim Administration has estimated the difference between the value of assets and liabilities by 4.5 billion rubles., Or less than 7%. "Master-Bank sign, because it really big, it had a lot of customers and a large volume of legitimate transactions. But most importantly, it was thought that he too influential patrons to him to do anything. His departure has shaken the banking community ", - said Miroshnichenko. In mid-2012 the Ministry of Interior issued a statement with a request to check suspicious transactions Master-Bank, but nothing happened.
Effectively launching a campaign, the Central Bank, "then went to cut tails" - the big players it is no longer affected, notes Miroshnichenko: fighting money laundering and other questionable operations of the Central Bank "shoots a trifle, but an example of Master-Bank suggests that this sin and the big players."
Indeed, the average bank, deprived of the license for "crime" is much smaller than, for example, insolvency and false reporting (see. Infographicy). Such banks an average of 4.6 billion rubles. assets and 2.1 billion of retail deposits. Excluding Master Bank figures are even more modest 3.8 billion and 1.5 billion rubles.
"Do not have a significant impact, because, as a rule, it concerns a very small banks From this we can conclude that the banking system and the economy cleaning. It is good that they become smaller, but it's like with clothes dust shaken - functional, nothing has changed, even though steel look better, "- says Miroshnichenko.
Much larger banks were deprived of their licenses "for economic crimes" - due to the loss of solvency, capital loss or falsification of statements (see infographic.).
According to Central Bank data, only 30 credit institutions 2.5 years among the grounds for the revocation of the license (and there are always a few) featured a significant misreporting of data. But at the end of the financial condition of the interim administration of surveys of their number had risen to 110. So much has been revealed counterfeiters, hid the basis for the implementation of bankruptcy prevention measuresand / or revocation of the license (61 more forcibly liquidated bank through assets sufficient to repay all obligations, the fate of the remaining 33 is unclear).
Total assets of 110 banks, according to their former leaders, exceeded 1.19 trillion rubles, according to the results of the survey, they were 2.4 times less -.. About 506 billion while liabilities more than 1.12 trillion rubles, according to the interim administration. These banks were stored 663 billion rbl., Or 3.7% of household deposits.
Lack of property 595 billion rubles. all payments to creditors - it's basically "the result of the withdrawal of assets through fraudulent schemes, frauds and fictitious transactions, hiding by submitting false statements," the response to the request of the Central Bank "Vedomosti".
In reality, the losses will be much more - on the basis of bankruptcy.
Bankruptcies per trillion
According to the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), among the banks lost their licenses from 1 July 2013 to the beginning of December, 105 had already declared bankrupt (one completed bankruptcy proceedings). At the beginning of the competitive balance of productionI value of their assets amounted to 1.38 trillion rubles, liabilities -. 1.15 trillion.
Lack of funds to meet the claims of creditors of the bank 105, according to the DIA, will be 70-75% of the amount of liabilities to creditors, or 805-863 billion rubles. It follows from this that really help out in the course of bankruptcy proceedings only 288-345 billion rubles., Is on 1,03-1,09 trillion rubles. lower than the book value of the assets.
The proceeds will not be enough to complete the calculation, not only from private investors, but even with the DIA, which after insurance payments, the rights claims of the citizens. According to the agency, 98 out of 105 bankrupt - participants of the deposit insurance system. At the moment, the amount of the established requirements of the creditors of the first stage - about 502 billion rubles, of which 423 billion -. Paid to depositors of the indemnity.
Deprived of banks licensed particularly popular contributors: the share of funds of individuals in their liabilities significantly exceeds the average. With the July 2013 contributions were 24-29,5% of liabilities of the banking sector, while the players have left the market - about 40% (see infographic.).
Trillion - a lot or a little?
Such loss of customers and creditors equivalents 4% of all funds raised by private banks, net of deposits of citizens, or 6% of the total account balances and deposits of enterprises in all banks, estimated head of the analysis of monetary policy and the Center for the banking system for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term forecasting (CMASF) Oleg Solntsev. "It's pretty much a given that we are talking about half of the credit institutions, deprived of licenses for 2.5 years, - he said. - Figures are sensitive, but not catastrophic. There is no reason to get depressed and yell, that business ruined. "
Lenders Pochuevexist loss, which to some extent are losses for the economy, because the lost funds will not be used in economic activity and will do no good, says chairman of the board "MDM Bank" Oleg Vyugin. The loss of more than 1 trillion rubles. in banking assets - real, it is negative for the economy, because the funds were effectively invested, and some of them stolen, but it is only 1/70 of GDP, he said: "For the wealthy growth is not critical."
For the financial losses the sector put in the care of more than 200 lending institutions have lost capital, but we must remember that the very economic crisis has affected the banks, continues to Vjugin: "If all grew and it was good, maybe to license as many have not withdrawn."
For the economy $ 1 trillion rubles. - Figure is not critical, says the Sun, but the banking sector is fundamentally different scale money. "Such a huge hole in the banks' capital is almost not treated because the total capitalization of the banking system - 8.8 trillion rubles., - He said. - This is a huge loss, andm only on the failed bank. But on the way banks are not yet bankrupt. "
The equity capital of the banking system in comparison with the assets and even the remains of customer accounts is low, but the "brutally significant" in terms of the ability of banks to continue, recalls Sun: because it compensates for the risks of active operations. If capital disappears, banks can not take risks, and therefore lend.
This loss of capacity, limiting the capacity of credit to the economy - the main loss, the expert said: "Without a meaningful solution to this problem that hole, most likely in fact to be shut up gosdengami. So, to continue the nationalization of the banking system. Because it is not visible to other coping mechanisms and sources of private capital inflows to compensate for the loss of 1 trillion of own funds. "
According to the calculations CMASF loss of 1 trillion equity (due to inadequate valuation of assets of bankrupt banks) will limit the potential size of the banking loans based on the multiplier "loans / equity" in recent years,th system 4.5-5 trillion rubles. It is about 12-14% of the loan portfolio of banks, said the sun. But credit is reduced gradually, he continues: the effect of the lack of capital is more or less fully manifested in two years. Consequently, the economy is felt only a portion of this effect, sums up the Sun: "The loss of capital depressing effect on lending to the economy and hinder the transition to economic growth when conditions arise for him. This will affect the GDP. "
"What sort of capital loss when the banks did not have it for many years, - exclaims Miroshnichenko. - And in reality, we have the majority of banks do not have any capital. But that does not stop lending and to increase portfolios. "
The size of capital of the banking sector, appearing in official statements, according to him, in terms of macro-level is sufficient to meet the demand for loans on the part of the Russian economy in times of crisis. "Because the demand crisis there," - he explains.
"Wait on the bank with huge holes in equity lending exploitsEconomics at least naively, - the expert continues. - These banks have lost capital due to the withdrawal of funds and the management of the owners, they would continue to expand such operations. "
Major losses of the economy are due to the disposal of banks in an era of economic crisis and is losing customers, mainly due to them and said Miroshnichenko. "The bank can die in two ways: traditional for Russia - where the money was stolen, unconventional - deteriorated when the quality of the assets at the time of crisis and could not pay its obligations", - he says. Liabilities are, but because of the crisis the money raised to invest especially nowhere, the banking business development prospects to be seen - as a result output means, even dishonest maximizing profits, says Miroshnichenko.
The sun also does not see any "potentially attractive destinations, which could bring the banks to profit in the conditions of economic stagnation and death of old ideas easy and quick money in the form of high-yielding unsecured loans to the population."
In the future, when economic growth sprowith credits can be satisfied by increasing the capitalization of banks survivors (if it will be profitable to the owners), recapitalization by the state, or even just a stroke of the pen the Central Bank, which can reduce capital requirements, says Miroshnichenko. However, with the growth of the economy will improve the quality of banks' assets that support their capital due to the dissolution of reserves, the cost of the asset growth, "so to limit credit growth by capital still have to manage to survive."
And there was a sweep?
"The fact that we have a good half of the banks involved in the transit of money and helped the economic entities in the withdrawal of capital from the country, - God's truth", - said Andrei Marin, the mediator in the purchase and sale of banking market. In part, this is still going on, "because demand for cashing not disappeared - it is, relatively speaking, to modernize." personal cash in small banks it is impossible, it is completely transparent. "And any cashing, as well as the transit of money, caught during the same day, and actually respond license. Therefore, these transactions left the small banks & raquo ;, - Marin explains.
As a result, he said, now many small banks put up for sale, because they can not earn money legally, "banking business itself becomes excessively risky" and "traditional high-yield operations actually blocked". By tightening oversight of transactions does not increase - though, apparently, they had to become more entrepreneur complains: "For sale became more banks, but buyers have virtually disappeared, transactions substantially less - one to two dozen a year, and in 2013 was about a hundred. " The reason: in the "pure banking business in today's economic situation simply does not make sense." But the tightening of supervision has nothing to do with it.
"A trillion is lost not because of the actions of the Central Bank, because of its own motion controller deprived licenses only small banks with total book value of assets is less than 300 billion rubles. (No Master-Bank, is a special case), "- reminiscent Miroshnichenko.
The main reasons for the revocation of licenses are economic, so the idea that Nabiullina nightmare or cleans the market figuresand common sense and not confirmed, sure Miroshnichenko. After all, the term "cleaning" can be applied only to banks that would live on, but they "shoot" because of the criminal activity, the expert said: "And if the bank died because the money ran out or stolen, the Central Bank is not to blame - only regulator issued a certificate of the death of the bankrupt ".
The central bank did not comment on the loss of a trillion.