Expert of the Institute of Real Economics Denis Khvorostov published a column "Structural skewing of Rosneft", in which he explained the reasons for the drop in production in the country's largest oil company.
According to him, the parameters of the general scheme for the development of the oil and gas industry in the Russian Federation until 2020 included data on the extraction of Rosneft from 2010 and a forecast for the next decade. However, after the team of Igor Sechin joined the company in September 2010, the accumulation of structural distortions in the adopted scheme began.
The most significant, the expert writes, was the failure in the extraction of low-sulfur oil from the company's eastern fields in the amount of more than 10 million tons per year, while increasing contractual obligations for deliveries to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. As a consequence, according to the magazine "Topneftegaz", the company's capitalization for today is about $ 57 billion, while in 2013 Sechin promised a "fair" capitalization of $ 120 billion.
Rosneft CEO Sergei Bogdanchikov in the early 2000s laid a high growth potential of the company. From 2004 to 2010, production grew in all of the underlying assets. The company included mining assets: Udmurtneft, Vankorneft, Polar Lights. According to estimates, in 2004-2010 the company increased production from 20.5 to 34.6 million tons (excluding Yukos assets).
After 2007, the restructuring of the company's assets began, with Rosneft's acquisition of the absorbed assets of Yukos. Comparison of production plans drawn up in 2010-2011 by Rosneft employees and laid down in the scheme, and the results obtained under the leadership of Sechin's team, make it possible to conclude that production for these assets will fall by 13 million tons by 2017-2020, in fact, for 1 million tons per year.
"In 2010-2011, people from the previous professional team still worked, who understood and were responsible for the development of production at Rosneft. Based on the documents of that period, the "result of professionalism" of foreign specialists attracted to the company by Sechin is clearly discernible, "writes Khvorostov in the Moscow Monitor. - The problem of non-fulfillment of production plans for the eastern assets of Rosneft, relative to the scheme, is complicated by the fact that low sulfur oil is produced in the east, while the western deposits, especially in the Ural-Povolzhsky basin, are highly sour. In the oil standards for deliveries to China and Southeast Asia, a small amount of sulfur is indicated, so only low-sulfur oil can be diverted from the western fields to fulfill the eastern contracts. "
In the four months of 2018, more than 15 million tonnes of low-sulfur oil was redirected to the eastern export route through the Transneft system, which sharply worsened the quality of raw materials supplied to the west. European consumers of Russian oil and refineries in the European part of Russia began to complain about an increase in the sulfur content of oil. Some refineries in Eastern Europe, due to the deteriorating quality of raw materials, began to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
In the four months of 2018, transit through the northern branch of the Druzhba (Belarus, Poland, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia) pipeline fell by 1.4%. Deliveries to Hungary along the southern branch of "Friendship" decreased by 18% (280 thousand tons), to Slovakia - by 8% (130 thousand tons).
Domestic refineries have approached the threshold of the technological possibility of processing oil of deteriorated quality, and such plants as KINEF, ANKhK, PNOS have already crossed this threshold.
In 2017 the company produced, according to the report, 225.5 million tons of liquid hydrocarbons. The main part of the company's raw materials, and in the east direction almost all raw materials, is transported on the pipeline system of Transneft. In 2017, about 180 million tons of raw materials were delivered to the Transneft system, of which 100.6 million tons were supplied to Russian plants. "It can be seen that Rosneft has approached a critical limit on the performance of its export contracts in the eastern direction," the expert notes.
The last example is the contract signed last week with French Total, according to which Rosneft is obliged annually to ship 4.5 million tons of raw materials.
The oil deficit led to a lower loading of the eastern plants of Rosneft. So in 2019-2020 it is planned to load ANKhK only by 80%, and Komsomolsk Refinery - by 73%. With such loads, it becomes economically inefficient to modernize enterprises within the framework of the quadripartite agreement (an agreement between the government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Energy, Rostekhnadzor and oil companies to modernize production), which is really happening.
Due to the shortage of raw materials, the project of the Eastern Petrochemical Company (VNKh) has actually lost its meaning. Rosneft can not clearly explain the economics of the project to investors and substantiate the billions already invested (purchase of land plots, design costs, high-profile PR actions). As a way out of the situation, the company asks for help from the president of the Russian Federation for building the infrastructure of the All-Ukrainian Exhibition Center. If, during the takeover of Yukos, there was practically no drop in production on its assets, which experts attribute to the old "Rosneft" staff at that time, then when TNK-BP is acquired, the picture is as follows: in the first year of the merger, the extraction of the absorbed assets was 59.01 million tons, and in 2017 - 52.05 million tons. The net fall was 11.8%.
A similar story with Bashneft. From 2007 to 2017, production in the company grew, it increased from 10 to 14.3 million tons. Now, Rosneft plans for these assets to reduce production: by 2020, production will decline to 13.8 million tons.
In January 2013, Igor Sechin said at a meeting with the Russian president that the fair value of Rosneft was $ 120 billion, at that time it was $ 92 billion. Now the company's capitalization is 57 billion dollars. At the end of last year, the company's total debt was 5.6 trillion rubles (97.2 billion dollars).
"Debt increases every year, and the company is unable to pay it off at the expense of its revenues. And it seems that nothing has changed, except for the management team, "concludes Expert of the Institute of Real Economy Denis Hvorostov.