The shares of Rosneft fell sharply on the Moscow stock exchange. At the auction on Thursday, they fell to the lowest level since March 2016 - 287 rubles per share, and for three weeks it became cheaper by 14.5%.
The market value of Russia's largest oil company declined by 481 billion rubles compared to mid-November and almost 1.5 trillion rubles from the peak of the beginning of the year.
In general, oil and gas stocks are doing well: LUKOIL, for example, has risen 10% over the month, Gazprom Neft - 11%. The growth of oil quotes to 2-year highs helps and the expectation that OPEC will prolong the deal to cut production, notes senior analyst AMarkets Artem Deev.
"The fall in Rosneft shares may be due to the negative information background around the company, which is linked to its international projects," Deyev said.
Over the past 12 months, Rosneft has increased its debt to a record 3.8 trillion rubles and spent about $ 12 billion on acquisitions, Bloomberg estimated.
About $ 6 billion was allocated to Venezuela, which was in the worst crisis: the money was received by the Venezuelan oil company PDVSA in the form of an advance payment for the supply of raw materials. On November 3, President Nicholas Maduro announced the termination of payments on external debt and its restructuring, and at the end of the month Venezuela was formally recognized as declaring a default.
Although this may not have a direct impact on the obligations of the PDVSA for the supply of Rosneft, doubts about the agreements are reinforced, Renaissance Capital analyst Alexander Burgansky told Bloomberg: "Rosneft may find it increasingly difficult to return funds in case of default."
"That's why in our valuation model of Rosneft we have already conservatively written off these amounts," Burgansky said.
Perhaps the $ 1.3 billion invested in projects in Iraq will have to be written off, says the head of operations at the Russian stock market, Fried Finance, Georgy Vashchenko: the Iraqi government disputes the agreement that Rosneft concluded with the Kurdistan, insisting that local the authorities do not have the authority to dispose of mineral resources, and all transactions must pass through the federal center in Baghdad.
The head of the Iraqi oil ministry Jabbar al-Luaybi said on October 20 that such agreements are "an insolent interference in the internal affairs of Iraq and a violation of national sovereignty."
The Iraqi deal "ate" about a quarter of Rosneft's annual profit. "In the worst case, this amount will be written off at a loss after 2019," Vashchenko notes.
"There are a lot of doubts about the effectiveness of corporate governance on the market's agenda, such a management system does not trust investors and other market players," Deyev said.
Rosneft's investments look like the company does not carry out economic but political investments, says Natalia Akindinova, director of the Center for Development of the Higher School of Economics.
Investments in the Maduro regime, for example, resemble the deal of the Kremlin with Viktor Yanukovych's bonds when, two months before his overthrow and flight from the country, Russia tried to save the regime by an emergency loan of $ 3 billion, she says, but you can understand what is happening: not too much in the world There are still countries that fully support Russia.