Rosneft will invest 250 billion rubles in its Arctic projects in the next five years, the company said (while the entire investment program of Rosneft in 2016 amounted to 750 billion rubles). In particular, the state company plans to drill four exploratory wells in the Eastern Arctic, on the Laptev Sea shelf, and eight at the most promising sites in the Western Arctic - in the Barents and Kara Seas. The works will begin in 2018 and 2019 respectively, Interfax reported referring to Rosneft.
One of the wells in the Kara Sea in 2019 will be drilled on the block "East Prinovozemelsky-1", Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of Rosneft, told journalists. (Interfax quotes him). In 2014, Rosneft and ExxonMobil drilled the Universitetskaya-1 well there, as a result of which the Pobeda deposit was discovered with reserves of 130 million tons of oil and nearly 500 billion cubic meters. M of gas. But in the same year ExxonMobil was forced to leave the project because of the introduction of international sanctions. "JV (with ExxonMobil. - RBC) is working, all the work is in the schedule. And just according to the work plan, we should start the next qualitative stage of work in this province in 2019, "Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of Rosneft, told journalists. According to him, this topic was discussed during the visit of the new head of ExxonMobil Darren Woods to Moscow.
Previously, Rosneft reported that it plans to invest $ 1.1 billion (62 billion rubles at the rate of the Central Bank on April 4) in the development of "East Prinovozemelsky-1", including drilling a new well.
The first well in the Eastern Arctic - "Central Olginskaya - 1" Rosneft began drilling on April 3. Work began at the Khatanga site in the Gulf of the Laptev Sea (resources as of September 2016 - 58.6 million tons of oil and condensate and 116.5 billion cubic meters of gas). The start of drilling was given by Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Igor Sechin did not rule out the appearance of foreign partners in the project: the site is in shallow water and does not fall under international sanctions. The resource potential of the Laptev Sea in general experts estimate 9.5 billion tons of oil equivalent, Rosneft reported.
In total, Rosneft owns 28 license areas on the Arctic shelf with total resources of 34 billion tons of oil equivalent. Over the past five years, Rosneft has invested 100 billion rubles in the development of the Arctic shelf. And carried out geological exploration on an area of 800 square meters. Km.
The implementation of offshore projects assumes a huge multiplier effect for the economy, said Igor Sechin in an interview with Bloomberg in 2014. "Every dollar invested in the shelf generates $ 7.7 in other sectors of the economy. This, I think, is the key position that justifies the support of offshore projects, "Sechin said.
Currently, only Gazprom Neft is producing on the Arctic shelf (at the Prirazlomnoye field). In 2016, production at Prirazlomnoye was 2.2 million tons, in 2017 Gazprom Neft expects to invest 16 billion rubles in Arctic projects. And to increase production at Prirazlomnoye to 2.6 million tons of oil per year, TASS reported referring to Andrei Patrushev, deputy general director for the development of offshore Gazprom Neft projects. Onshore, production is also carried out at the major Pyakyakhinskoye field (LUKOIL), Suzunsky, Novoportovskoye (Gazprom Neft), Vostochnom-Messoyakhskoye (Rosneft and Gazprom Neft).
At the same time, according to the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, the profitable production on the Russian Arctic shelf will be at the price of oil at least $ 70 per barrel (April 3 at the London Stock Exchange ICE the price was about $ 53.5 per barrel). "But it is important to understand that the cost of production is not a fixed amount - it can vary greatly depending on the availability of technology, demand for it, and a number of other factors," the minister explained in late March (quoted by TASS). The price of oil will increase smoothly and by 2020 will be $ 70-75 per barrel, and by 2025 will grow to $ 95, predicts Maxim Nechaev, consulting director of IHS Markit. The consensus forecast assumes a rise in prices in the short term, the cost of oil will rise to $ 70 in 2020, agrees analyst Raiffeisenbank Andrei Polishchuk.
Much depends on the production region and the specific areas where the wells will be drilled - in shallow water or deep-sea offshore areas, explains Tatyana Mitrov, director of the Skolkovo business school energy center. For example, the cost of production in shallow Arctic areas in Norway is less than $ 50 per barrel. Shallow water is also in the Kara Sea, says the expert. On the other hand, international sanctions have blocked access to Western financing and technology for Russian deepwater projects, and Russia does not have its own technologies for large-scale extraction in the Arctic, and they are unlikely to appear by 2018-2019, Mitrova said.
Offshore production technologies are being developed in China, but Chinese companies do not have experience in the Arctic, which means that there is no experience in managing risks, especially environmental ones, the expert concludes.
In 2016, Russia produced 93 million tons of oil in the Arctic, which is 17% of production in Russia, Alexander Novak said at the end of March, TASS reported. By 2035, Russia can extract 22% of oil in the Arctic (122 million tons) - this forecast is contained in the "Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035", which is on the agreement of the government.
In the Arctic, other Russian companies are also actively working. NOVATEK plans to launch in 2017 the first private LNG plant - Yamal LNG with a capacity of 16.5 million tons, and in 2022-2023 to build the second - the Arctic LNG on the Gydan Peninsula. The company "VostokUgol" Dmitry Bosov this year plans to start industrial coal mining in Taimyr and by 2022-2023 to reach the figure of 30 million tons of production. The company is also going to build two deepwater ports with a capacity of over 10 million tons of cargo per year.