US Wired magazine even thought that Russia has a system of "dead hand" which is able to destroy the enemy, even if you've no one to make a decision about this impact. As it turned out, the Russian Federation has yet another devastating weapon that can be applied in relation to the US economy, and the performance is comparable with nuclear. "They (the Russian -.. Note" Co ") may put the US economy on its head and completely destroy it," - said in a recent interview with a guru to Wall Street Jim Sinclair. Russia may demand payment for its oil and gas that it supplies Europe, in rubles. "It can be tough" kick in the teeth "in response to the sanctions", - says an American expert. According to him, the dollar's strength today lies in the fact that buyers of energy is necessary to go to the dollar market and buy the US currency for the settlement of energy contracts. And if Russia will challenge the petrodollar, starting calculations for energy in a different currency, this may cause the collapse of the US currency and the whole US economy, predicts J.m Sinclair.
Russian answer is not long in coming. At first, officials announced the creation of the national payment system (refer to the "To" №12 from 31.03.2014 material "Maps bits"), and now the bankers started talking about a possible move into rubles when paying for energy. "It's been a month since we hear from senior executives of Western calls to isolate Russia, virtually destroying the Russian banking sector, using modern" nuclear weapons "in the field of finance - the dollar calculations", - said the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. And propose solutions, which everyone thought a lot, but very few people spoke openly. "It is long overdue topic - wide transition to settlements in rubles with our trading partners must start immediately not only to the calculations in the framework of the Customs Union and the CIS, but also in relations with our major trading partners such as China and Western Europe.." - said Andrei Kostin. According to him, "Gazprom", "Rosneft" and "Rosoboronexport" in the amount of exported products worth $ 230 billion a year. According to Kostin, he govoreel with the heads of these companies, and "they do not mind to drive exports in rubles, they just need to give an appropriate mechanism", and thus Russia will be able to "reduce dependence on the vagaries of the US government and the EU."
In the listed state-owned companies Andrei Kostin gently hinted that the head of VTB haste with such loud statements. "Rosneft" adheres to the contractual obligations and conducts calculations in the currency of the contract ", - said the representative of the oil company in." Rosoboronexport "promised to comment on the statements of Mr. Kostin, but chose to remain silent." Gazprom "and official comments are not provided, but a source in the company said that yet the translation mechanism already signed contracts for settlements in rubles "We carry out all the operations in foreign currency in the normal mode and does not consider the possibility of failure of such operations", -., he said, "by the" official representative of JSC "SMP Bank" (undergone by the sanctions USA), Igor Ilyukhin. "We trade in dollars and do not plan to translate calculations in rubles", - He said on condition of anonymity, the representative of a major Russian steel companies. "Where raw materials buyers will take rubles mechanism of this transition is absolutely incomprehensible?" - Said the official representative of LUKOIL Dmitry Dolgov. That is enthusiastic proposal VTB among the largest domestic exporters has not caused. Moreover, some experts have suggested that the transition to payments in rubles beneficial primarily state-owned banks: they will earn on the sale of the national currency to foreigners. "Perhaps it is here, and Andrei Kostin interest in this subject," - said the representative of a large metropolitan bank.
There is another point of view. "With high probability we can say that such a transition is possible just announced that new contracts are settled in rubles Technically, this is easy to do, there is the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, on which the calculations just made in rubles, -.. Says deputy Head of Treasury, "Bank of settlements and savings" Ivan Farafonov -. Non-Residentm invited to bid, you must be converted at the exchange currency into rubles It would be very nice and helpful, as would dramatically increased the demand for the Russian currency and contribute to its strengthening, "." - adds a top manager of a large metropolitan bank. - But, unfortunately, it would have made less competitive Russian exports. Why customers additional costs for conversion, if you can buy goods from other vendors? So, all other things being equal, the price and quality of goods, if customers need to acquire more and rubles to buy the goods, it is quite possible they will choose other manufacturers. "While in the calculations with the politically and economically dependent countries it is advisable to transfer foreign trade settlements in rubles, according to the chief analytical department of the bank "BKF" Maxim Osadchy.
"It is understood that the ruble is not the currency of international settlements and too mobile, like any other commodity currency Accordingly, exporters can not accurately predict the financial flows.", - Says senior analyst, "Alpari" Anand Bodrov. That is, the exporters need to insure the risks of a sharp change in the ruble against the dollar and euro. Obviously, absolutely no one, including the central bank, not in a state with sufficient degree of probability to predict the dynamics of the course, even in the medium term. Meanwhile, contracts for the supply of energy are not a year or two, and often for decades, as it is now with China on gas exports. It turns out that export-oriented companies become dependent on highly unstable ruble. "How can we enter into long-term contracts on the currency, which has recently fallen to the same euro by 20% ?!" - Puzzled representative of a major domestic bank.
Nevertheless, a gradual work to reduce Russia's dependence on the dollar as the global reserve currency is a long time. One of the key trading partner is now China, which need our energy, especially for loyal prices, given the need to diversify exports to the Russian Federation. "China, by the way, is working on a rejection of the dollar in the oil trade, and mlegged neighboring countries have moved him on calculations that bypass the conversion to the dollar. On the other hand, as long as it is only local calculations, rather than world trade, so to the rejection of the dollar (or the appearance comparable to the power of world currency) is still far ", - the analyst recognizes the investment holding" Finam "Anton forty.
Shot in the leg
For China Bank transfer Outlook yuan does not seem so utopian already a few years ago. Just last week it was announced that the Bank of England and Bank of China (PBOC) signed a Memorandum of Understanding between the two central banks in connection with the establishment in the center of London clearing in RMB. Earlier it was reported that it has signed a similar agreement between the Bank of Russia and the NSC. Russian and Chinese companies will be able from now on to make payments "as in freely convertible currencies and in national currencies of two countries (rubles and yuan)." In addition, the agreement of the Central Bank of Russia and NSC provide that natural persons - residents of Russia and China will be able to fully exercise remittances, notKnitted with a business in national currencies. But if the Russian Central Bank on this issue is marking time, the Chinese authorities in the last few years, far ahead by signing currency swap lines with many states. Thus, the People's Bank of China and the German Bundesbank have agreed to cooperate with the clearing and settlement of payments in RMB. Many large German companies already master the use of the yuan as the currency in cross-border transactions.
"See how difficult passes China to payments in RMB. For this we need to create a specific infrastructure market appreciation. For example, the Prime Minister of China opened the center in Frankfurt, which will decide where those tasks, - says analyst FIBO Group Basil Yakimkin . - But in this city six Chinese first-tier banks have their "daughters" Several years ago, a similar center was opened in London, and there, too, about a dozen Chinese lending institutions present that is no banking infrastructure in any way "... Not to mention the fact that the US strategic partners, has long and firmly sitting on " petrodollar needle ", are not willing to go against the" big brother "and undermine its global economic power.
Recall that the basis of the existing financial world order was founded after World War II by creating the so-called Bretton Woods system. It was based on the "gold standard", the dollar was provided with precious metal, and it committed all cross-border payments in dollars. But the situation changed dramatically in 1971 when the US abandoned the "gold standard" and tied to the dollar calculations for energy. Since then, the US currency has become virtually the only to pay for the supply of oil. It is the fact that the entire world market for raw materials, "tied" to the dollar, and rests the power of the currency, and the US economy. And no matter how much said about the enormous debt of the United States, which, as analysts say, Washington did not pay off ever abandon the dollar dependence without destroying the entire global financial system will not work. It is understood in China, both in Moscow and in Washington. But economic confrontationtions with Russia after the events in Ukraine gave a chance not only to Moscow, but Beijing said the release of this secret pact, which all comply with world powers last 75 years. "No other scenarios no, Russian have a more powerful weapon than the Swiss system (it is the same of the Bretton Woods system -. Note." Co "), their expulsion from the Swiss system is equivalent to a shot at their own pace, they can destroy everything. "- says Jim Sinclair.
The collapse of the Dow
Transition of Russia and China to settlements in national currencies and the abandonment of the dollar is like a time bomb for the United States. "The US asked its economic and political allies do not do this, no one will go, except for a few countries, which Russia itself same and subsidizes While the Americans are playing with us like a cat with a mouse, and all the cards in their hands. - says Vasily Yakimkin -. Therefore, it is not necessary to aggravate the situation, and now begin the transition to ruble calculations This is a long process that starts after the creation of an appropriate infrastructure on the interbank we have this yet. "..
Then anger that sense just of global hegemon? In response, the US can take and bring down the Russian ruble, synchronously with colleagues shaking the market, primarily oil. For good reason, US President Barack Obama during his European tour visited including Saudi Arabia. Experts have suggested that he could go to negotiate a reduction in oil prices, which last time was the cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
However, Russia has a lot of partners abroad, who will not look in the negotiations with Moscow on Washington. Recently it became known that Russia and Iran have made substantial progress in the negotiations for the supply of "black gold" in the exchange of goods. The total amount of the transaction is approximately $ 20 billion. The implementation of such a scenario would allow Iran to increase energy exports despite the sanctions, and Russia will make a significant step towards abandoning the dollar in the calculations for sale of oil or gas. Of course, this is far less than the $ 230 billion mentioned by Andrei Kostin, but because the contract with Iran - just the beginning. The transition to ruble in mutualby Energokontrakt with China will be a major blow to the United States. "Russia holds the petrodollar with one hand and can answer this in an instant way to bring about a collapse of the Dow, which had never existed in the history" - sums up Jim Sinclair.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president:
"We need to think very seriously, so that we will never, under any circumstances, would not have caused any disruptions in financial transactions, the financial security of our infrastructure sectors. This concerns energy in general, it concerns communication. So the government is thinking right now about it, and the central bank on this thinking. the same is true in respect of the domestic payment system. it is unfortunate that some companies have decided to known limitations. I think that this will lead simply to a loss of certain segments of the market for them, and the market is very profitable. Well, it is not our decision. we have to protect our interests, and we will do it. "
Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Central Bank:
"Taking into account the share of international payment cards in the Russian market, which is about 95%, of course, We are not talking about a ban. The idea is that we should create a system which will ensure uninterrupted internal calculations, all the more so that the internal calculations of the order of 90% of payments by payment cards. "
Oksana Dmitrieva, deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes:
"If the international card processing would have been transferred to the territory of Russia at least in the last year, the system is disconnected from the number of card holders would be simply impossible."
German Gref, President of Sberbank:
"Since the adoption of amendments to the law, I think we need the technical work from two to six months to run in different variants national payment system."
Mikhail Zadornov, President of "VTB 24":
"We offer our colleagues mezhhostingovye build connections and organize de facto settlement in the country on the cards between the banks. And so we work with several major banks conduct. (...) None of the players will not want to in the most payment system was Dominition of some players. That is the best way - is to create, possibly with the participation and under the auspices of the Central Bank. "