Sakhalin will be connected with the bridge with Russia

The project of the new bridge was estimated more expensive than the Crimean one.
The possible next megastructure of the Russian Federation, the bridge to Sakhalin, in terms of per kilometer, is 3.5 times more expensive than the recently opened Crimean. In general, taking into account railway approaches, Russian Railways estimates the project at 540.3 billion rubles. plus more than 90 billion rubles. on the modernization of roads on Sakhalin. The bridge is being discussed in conjunction with the project of the deep-sea coal terminal in Ilyinsky, for which another 100 billion rubles are needed. But experts and market participants doubt the meaningfulness of the project without continuing to Japan.

"Kommersant" managed to get acquainted with the details of the Sakhalin railway transition project. As follows from the materials of Russian Railways, following the results of actualization in 2017 of a feasibility study from 2013, the route from Selikhin station on the Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Vanino line to the narrowest point of the Tatar Strait (Nevelsky Strait) and then to Nysh Station on Sakhalin is recognized as the optimal. The total length, including the 6-kilometer bridge, is 585 km. The price without VAT is 540.3 billion rubles, of which the bridge is 252.8 billion rubles. In addition, OJSC RZD needs to invest 92.1 billion rubles. in the railways of Sakhalin. Design work will take three years (2018-2020), construction - five years (2019-2023). In JSC Russian Railways, "Kommersant" clarified that the parameters are "preliminary", and the project "is under construction".

About the bridge on Sakhalin spoke for decades, but a reality-like idea only last summer, when Vladimir Putin mentioned it in a straight line. As a result, the bridge has already been included in the investment program of Russian Railways: 1 billion rubles have been allocated for design work for 2018. But at the same time the cargo base remains unclear and on the whole rather modest. The documents say that by 2030, in the absence of development of port capacities of Sakhalin, it will reach only 8.5 million tons.

Therefore, it is proposed to build a new deep-water port there to attract up to 23.4 million tons of cargo from the Eastern landfill, to 10 million tons of coal from Mongolia and China and up to 5 million tons in containers.

Now there are no deep-sea ports on Sakhalin, except Prigorodnoye (LNG and oil, connected to Sakhalin-2). The remaining potential locations are either cut off from the railway infrastructure, such as Shakhtersk port of the Eastern mining company (WGC, plans for transshipment - 20 million tons of local coals), or shallow, or "clamped by the city," the documents say. In 2017, there was a concept for the construction of a port in Poronaisk with a terminal for 24 million tons of coal per year. In April, in an interview with RBC, port co-owner Mikhail Skigin said that one option involves a coal terminal in the case of a bridge to Sakhalin. The head of the WGC Oleg Misevra promised to increase the capacity of his future port to 50 million tons if a bridge was built.

But in the documents of JSC Russian Railways "the best option is a port in the vicinity of Delangli Bay (Ilinsky settlement)". The total cost of the project is estimated at 100 billion rubles, of which 25-30 billion rubles - for the infrastructure for transshipment of coal. Linking the project with the bridge, according to the documents, will "optimize" the costs of 200 billion rubles. The investor of Ilinsky is unknown. The interlocutors of "Kommersant" say that it will be determined only after the completion of the bridge's feasibility study. According to one of them, Ilinsky has advantages: it is located on the narrow isthmus of the island, where you can travel from one shore to another. But on the whole, the deep-sea port in the Tatar Strait "looks completely unreasonable," the source of Kommersant notes. "To get there, you need to go around the island, go to the territorial waters of the Russian Federation, climb to the north, while it's easier to go a little farther to Vladivostok and immediately get on the Trans-Siberian Railway. The project is more like lobbying the interests of some of the exporters, most likely coal miners, "he says.

However, the source of Kommersant in the coal industry objected that the transhipment of an additional 30 million tons of coal is a "contrived" prospect, in Russia there are no large deposits that are no longer tied to the ports of departure. Sakhalin itself can produce 15 million tons in the future, but it is mostly coal in Shakhtersk, and the nearest free volumes are "not east of Khakassia". According to the interlocutor of "Kommersant", "taking into account long-range approaches", the project cost may exceed 1 trillion rubles. Maxim Khudalov, the director of the corporate ratings group of ACRA, notes that the construction of a large deep-sea port with undersupply of the capacities of the Vanino port seems premature.

The estimation of the bridge itself in terms of a kilometer is 3.5 times higher than that of the Crimean one, which was solemnly opened on May 15 by Vladimir Putin. Part of these spending is state funds: 100 billion rubles. from the federal budget, 90 billion rubles. from the Development Fund of the Far East (FRDV), 60 billion rubles. from the Corporation for Development of the Sakhalin Region. In the FRG of the comments were not given, specifying only that now his assets are only 38 billion rubles.

Experts do not consider the price difference paradoxical. Alexey Efanov, Partner of the Engineering practice of NEO Center, says that the problem can be in high seismicity, complex engineering-geological and hydrological conditions, inaccessibility of the area and its belonging to the Far North. The managing partner of Veta expert group Ilya Zharsky adds that the cost of a bridge to the Crimea does not include the costs of ensuring transport security and land purchase. "The main question: in the Crimea the population is more than 2.5 million people, and on Sakhalin - up to 500 thousand people. Actual bridge can be, only if they continue construction in the direction of Hokkaido."