Sanctions will hit both Turkey and Russia

For Turkey, it is fraught with the loss of markets worth billions of dollars; for Russia, the acceleration of inflation and the decline in the economy.
Today, Monday November 30, the First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov will report to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on the implementation of the presidential decree signed on Saturday to impose economic sanctions against Turkey. Decree that followed in response to the destruction of the Turkish fighter Russian bombers who participated in the fighting in Syria, instructs to cancel visa regime with Turkey and charter air service to it recommends to abandon the sale of tours to this country, prescribes limit the supply of Turkish products in Russia and attracting Turkish Russian companies to carry out projects, and Turkish citizens - to work in Russian companies. List of products, companies or areas of activity, which will affect the restrictions by Sunday evening had not yet been approved: the government apparatus continued to work on the analysis of the proposals of the ministries, told "Vedomosti" a source in the government.

"Restrictions on the food will be, but random, will concern only some products, the list will be released a few days ago. The Government is to act very carefully, taking intoing to that ahead of the holidays, "- said a senior official. The list will still depend on the rhetoric of Turkey - the last time it changes. The general attitude - to proceed with caution, summed up the source "Vedomosti".

"All the proposals made by ministries, we are working in the government", - said the representative of the Prime Minister Natalia Timakova, refusing to talk about their essence.

Federal officials said that if the President Shuvalov commission will consult with business representatives of both public and private companies. "I think that Shuvalov will act pragmatically to insure proposals for sanctions from the consequences of which could harm the Russian economy in general and, in particular," - he said.

A source in the apparatus Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the possible meeting with the business is not necessary. For information about the meeting Shuvalov with business representative of the Secretariat first deputy chairman of the government has not commented.
Friends under sanctions

A year ago, the future PoRussian- Turkish trade relations looked bright. Turkey has benefited from the beginning after the annexation of Crimea Russia confrontation with the US and EU. "Russian Turkey provided many advantages, we have new opportunities for investment, many large companies have entered the Russian market", - he told the Financial Times the commercial counselor of the Russian-Turkish Business Association Oguz Kalaychev-oglu. In 2014, Turkish businessmen have increased food imports in Russia, replacing fallen under embargo products from the EU and other countries. In December last year, during a visit to Ankara, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced plans to expand trade relations with Turkey, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised then that the bilateral trade volume in 2020 should triple - up to $ 100 million.

Russia and so the largest exporter to Turkey. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, in 2014, its share exceeded 10% of the total Turkish imports. The largest item - gas. In 2015, imports began to decline, following the general trend, and amounted in January - September 2015 $ 16 billion, 18% less than in the same period lastyear, Russia has moved to the 3rd largest importer after China and Germany (see. infographic on p. 21).

Russia to Turkey, according to Turkish Statistical Institute, in 2014 was the seventh volume of the export market, exports amounted to $ 6 billion (3.8%) - it is primarily food products and textiles.

Turkey - the fifth in terms of foreign trade partner of Russia, in 2014 deliveries to Turkey of goods and services totaled $ 27.4 billion, or 5% of Russia's exports, a reverse flow - $ 16.3 billion, or 4% of total imports. In this case the excess of exports over imports provided 7% of Russia's foreign trade surplus.

The main Russian exports to Turkey - trade. A balance of trade in services, on the contrary, in favor of Turkey. The balance of services trade with the countries of the world, Russia is traditionally negative - to $ 55.3 billion in 2014, of which Turkey's share - 12%. Turkey - a major supplier of services in Russia. In 2014, they were provided for $ 9.7 billion (8% of imports of services). More than two thirds of this sum - tours: according to the Central Bank, last year Russians spent in Turkey, $ 6.6 billion, almost twice as much as this Share this indicator 2nd placesGermany and Egypt (individually). By the number of foreign trips of Russians, Turkey is second only to Finland (4.4 million and 4.8 million respectively). In Turkey, every eight tourists - from Russia, most Russians visiting the country only residents of Germany.

The second largest item of import of services from Turkey - the construction work, in which Turkey's share was 35% in 2014. The volume of imports of construction services in Turkey in the past year fell by 37% due to the completion of the construction of Olympic facilities, the Central Bank says in the report.

At the same time, Turkey and as a service market for Russia the importance of the 6th place ($ 3 billion, or 4.5%). But the export of construction services - and at the first: every third dollar earned by Russia on the construction of non-residents ($ 1.5 billion from $ 4.7 billion) came in 2014, the share of Turkey. The transport services of the tourist flow and earn much more Russian carriers, rather than Turkish: according to the Central Bank, in 2014 air transport between the two countries have brought Russia $ 800 million, and Turkey - $ 142 million.

Turkish investments in Russia in January - September 2015 amounted to $55 million Russia is investing in Turkey is much more -. As expected $ 755 million this year.

"Now almost all our undertakings are in the risk zone" - recognizes Kalaychev-oglu. "We are all confused and waiting," - echoes Chairman of the Commission of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce on foreign economic cooperation with partners in Turkey Mamdouh Al Khatib. Russia will replace the Turkish suppliers, but they themselves find other sales markets more difficult. For example, no other neighboring country does not need in such a quantity Turkish fruits and vegetables, he explains. The sanctions will affect all sectors of the Turkish economy will suffer food importers and transport companies to deliver products in Russia, the developers who built a house in Turkey, based on the buyers from Russia and the bankers to lend to all these businessmen, he concluded.

"Unfortunately, it is necessary to forget about the strategic partnership", - says the president of Chamber of Commerce of Russia (CCI) Sergey Katyrin. The Russian economy survive the deterioration of relations with Turkey rather calmly, hopeshe. In the EU countries accounted for more than half of Russia's trade turnover - about $ 400 billion, all trade with Turkey - about $ 32 billion, Katyrin explains.
Not an embargo, but restrictions

The Ministry of Agriculture on the eve of the presidential decree, the ministry sent a proposal to limit food purchases in Turkey, but did not offer to introduce the embargo, according to agency staff. In fact, it is the embargo, and formally - the restriction of supply by the federal law on special economic measures says another official. We are talking about strengthening the phytosanitary and veterinary control on the line of Rospotrebnadzor, told two federal official.

Turkey was one of the beneficiaries of Russian food embargo. In 2014, bilateral trade in agricultural products grew by 19% to $ 4 billion by increasing the supply of Turkish vegetables, fruits and nuts in Russia - they are, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, accounted for 20% of total imports. However, in the first half of 2015, this growth has come to naught.

Reduced imports is explained by the general tendency of reduction of purchases abroaddue to the devaluation of the ruble, says deputy head of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Daria Snitko. Turkey on a number of products has continued to actively replace imports, which went before the country, fallen in 2014 under the embargo, she adds. For the first eight months of this year increased imports of fish. Turkey has become the largest supplier of raw tobacco and its share in comparison with 2014 has increased from 35 to 45%, saw Snitko. In her opinion, this is due to the desire of manufacturers to reduce costs through the procurement of cheaper raw materials. If tobacco imports from Turkey would be limited, it would be a serious problem: switching to more expensive raw materials will lead to an increase in retail prices, it is feared.

"A holy place is never empty. You can always find alternative suppliers. Both foreign and domestic manufacturers to take advantage of the maximum benefit liberated niches hope our customers will not feel significant inconvenience "- says Katyrin. The share of Turkish fish catch on the Russian shelves is only 3%, it can be replaced by supplies from Tunisia, MaOKKO and Chile, said the head of the Federal Fisheries Agency, Ilya Shestakov in the air of "Russia 24" TV channel.

It's not so easy, warns Snitko. "There are no insurmountable technical barriers in foreign trade of vegetables and fruits with the countries which are not subject of the embargo, still did not have, so the fact that Turkey has become the largest supplier of vegetables and fruits in Russia, proves that she offered the best conditions, including price - it leads an example. - Of course, replace its products, though not fast, but really - their vegetables and fruits can offer Azerbaijan and Israel, but it is obvious that it will also lead to an increase in the purchase price. "

Customs on November 24 does not pass trucks with food from Turkey, so some orders had to be placed in Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia, says officer largest food company. But because of the extreme heat in these countries have just started to grow salads, so there may be interruptions in the supply, he is going through. Turkish suppliers have started to put penalties for early rupture of contracts, warns of moreOne trouble is one of the retailers.

Tourists will stay at home

The most serious blow to the Turkish economy - the recommendation to refuse the sale of tours and charter air travel ban. From the Russian tourists it receives more than from the export-import operations, said Charlie Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. In 2014, the Russians have provided 12% of the total tourist traffic to Turkey and brought its economy $ 2.7 billion estimated Nomura International, more income economy -. $ 4 billion - bringing the private entrepreneurs from Russia, Turkey, procuring clothing and other goods for the Russian market. The total number of visits by foreigners in Turkey may be reduced by 25%, experts believe Nomura.

Russian tour operators working with Turkey, may switch to domestic tourism, "they do not have to leave the market," he said in an interview to television channel "Russia 24" head of the Federal Tourism Agency Oleg Safonov.

According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia, is now sold in Russia 6000 tours to Turkey average cost of $ 800, so the loss of tour operators will be insignificant, the vice-president organizatsii Dmitry Gorin. Much more after the break they lost tourism posts with Egypt, where at that time there were 90 000 Russians, he explains. The annual flow into Turkey amounted to about 3 million tourists, it is expected to be redistributed in the summer season on Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia, in the winter (it has more to do with the ban tourism posts with Egypt) - in the United Arab Emirates, Israel, says Gorin. Increase the demand for Russian resorts, but they went up, indicating Gorin.

Bankruptcy should not be expected, but some tour operators focused on Turkey, including global companies - Coral Travel, Anex Tour, Brisco, «Pegas Touristik" - can reduce the presence in the Russian market, he continues. In Turkey in the "Pegas Touristik" accounted for about 50% of sales, if the ban on the sale of tours will continue in the summer, to fully compensate the loss of this trend will not succeed, says CEO Anna Podgornaya company.

According to Gorin, working in the Russian representative office of Turkish charter carriers - AzurAir, Metrojet - will fly in other areas: in the Dominican Republic, Vietnam, India, andalso in Russia.

How much of a ban on charter flights by airline strike, depending on its duration: Now even with the closure of the Egypt and redirecting tourists to Turkey loss will be minimal, as the season ended in the country, said the general director of airline "Fly Eye" George Boutin. During the summer season on Turkey accounts for up to half the flow of tour operators, if the ban is extended, the tourism industry will suffer greatly, he said.
Without gas and atom

Last week, Medvedev said about the possibility of freezing the major Russian projects in Turkey. Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev in the number of projects called the pipeline "Turkish Stream" and the construction of "Akkuyu" NPP in the Turkish province of Mersin.

NPP project can be completely frozen or at least postponed for indefinite period of time, he told "Vedomosti" former "Rosatom" employee structure - "Atomenergomash" is engaged in construction. He estimated that the Russian side of the project has already spent about $ 100 million,despite the fact that the estimated total value of the five units -. $ 20 billion, of which the budget could be reserved no more than $ 4 billion in the first unit, assumes the source "Vedomosti".

"NPP" Akkuyu "was one of the most real projects" Rosatom ": already the preparations for the construction, set up a joint Russian-Turkish company and a set of hardware even drafted, which should have been put to Turkey," - he continues.

"For Turkey, the conditions were very favorable, financing of the construction was carried out of our money, the project for Russia was more political payback conditions - very difficult," - says the source "Vedomosti". Construction would take at least five years (first two blocks, then three more), service life - not less than 60 years.

"What does this mean for Turkey? It is not just the first nuclear power plant, and the creation of the nuclear industry in this country, including the preparation and training of specialists, the appearance of a different level of technical education, jobs and the development of the surrounding regions due to the emergence of deevogo electricity, "- says a former employee of" Atomenergomash ".

For Russia, he said, that meant the inclusion of Turkey in our fuel cycle and nuclear binding energy of this country in our technologies with the prospect of 70-80-year-old cooperation in equipment maintenance, supply toplivovydelyayuschih components for nuclear power plants and the provision of fuel enrichment services.

"If we abandon the construction of nuclear power plants in Turkey, a great disaster for Russia this is not. The station had to be built on Russian money, do not see any possibilities for penalties, the project did not begin on the basis of international agreements, and in the framework of agreements between companies, - says the former Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy, Konstantin Kuranov. Stated payback period is 15 years, but according to Kuranova, in reality it is 20-25 years, and in the complex political climate even more.

The representative of "Rosatom" the fate of the project has not commented.

What is the possible rejection of the Russian project "Turkish Stream"?

For Russia would benefitn gas hub in Turkey, said a senior official of "Gazprom". The total cost of the project "South Stream", which could go to the "Turkish Stream" is about 20 billion euros, but in the framework of its construction were given advances are difficult to quantify, he complains. But, in his view, the loss of "Turkish stream" is not critical for Russia.

"If the" Turkish Stream "will be frozen, which means only the loss of the opportunity to influence the future in Ukraine. Would "Turkish Stream", Ukraine would be more compliant, because the gas transit through its territory would be reduced ", - says the source" Vedomosti ". According to him, in fact, "Gazprom" has lost nothing but the potential of a stronger position in the negotiations: the possibility of balancing between the two directions (Ukrainian and Turkish gas transit).

The "Gazprom", according to the interlocutor of "Sheets", there are several ways out of this situation: to increase the capacity of the Baltic walking on the seabed to Germany "Northern stream» (Nord Stream) or transit through Belarus and Poland, gazoprovan ode to the Yamal - Europe (. is 20 billion cubic meters, it is possible to increase to 50-80 billion cubic meters.). "Poland is more predictable than the Ukraine, based on the pragmatic interests and is controlled by the rules of the European Union and as a transit country can meet the needs of the former Eastern Bloc," - says a former employee of "Gazprom". Finally, it does not exclude the need to negotiate with Ukraine, noting that in recent years no failures with the transit of gas through Ukraine. "It all works perfectly, just had political ambitions to build a" South Stream "and move transit 80 billion cubic meters. meters of gas to the south. Not realize the problem - and to hell with it. In the case of potential disruptions to gas transit through Ukraine can be a bit of traveling to Brussels and agree to abide by this transit ", - the interlocutor of" Sheets "believes.

The "Gazprom" the situation with the project "Turkish Stream" does not comment.
Developers under the supervision of

Restriction on the involvement of Turkish workers in the first place hit by the Russian construction industry, which employs the majority ofwhich recognizes a federal official. According to the Russian Chamber of Commerce, from 1987 to 2009, Turkish construction companies in Russia have implemented construction and installation works of more than $ 20 billion to build more than 900 objects.

The quota for the involvement of Turkish workers, in this component, 67 000 in 2016 will be significantly reduced, said Minister of Labor and Social Protection Maxim Topilin. In December, the government will prepare a list of employers who will be able to employ the citizens of Turkey from January 1, 2016 These are the companies that have unfinished contracts for the construction of large projects, for example, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Tatarstan, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Perm Krai, Volgograd region.

Developers may lose not only the workers, but also contracts. On Friday, the State Duma deputy Dmitry Ushakov sent a letter to Medvedev address a proposal to suspend the ICA Turkish general contractor (IC Astaldi Ictas) on the central portion of the WHSD construction cost of 120 billion rubles., Of which 50.7 billion rubles. from the federal budget and 69.3 billion rubles. - Means the consortium "Highway North hundredLitsa "(MCC), which includes the ICA. The deputy also proposes to block withdrawal of concern ICA funds abroad Russia. MCC and IC Astaldi Ictas representatives in Russia and Turkey did not respond to questions "Vedomosti". IC Astaldi Ictas already built in St. Petersburg, the new building airport "Pulkovo" run "Northern Capital Gateway" - German consortium Fraport and VTB. We have Turkish companies and other large projects. For example, Renaissance Holding last year, was chosen the general contractor of the construction of the headquarters of "Gazprom" in Lahti. The company also has a project to build 1 million square feet. meters of housing by 40 hectares of reclaimed areas of Vasilyevsky Island.

The consequences of war

According to Nomura International, Turkey could lose $ 12 billion, or 1.6% of its GDP. "The markets will react negatively to this, and we will see volatility in all Turkish assets, until such time has not yet become clear on exactly what will extend the sanctions", - said a credit analyst at Commerzbank AG in Dubai Apostolos Bantis. In the course of the Turkish lira against the dollar last week fell by 3.3%

Short-term effects of economic warfare budet harder for Turkey in case of restriction of Russia tourism, cooperation on energy projects, construction, said Vladimir Tikhomirov from the BCS. trade limited strikes and at the Russian resurgence of inflation, he said. The share of fruits from Turkey in the consumption of Russians is 11%, vegetables - 5% limit will cause a rise in prices for fruits and vegetables by 7-8%, thought Nikolai Kondrashov of the Center for Development Economics. If you can not quickly replace the goods from Turkey, the prices can grow, acknowledged Deputy Minister of Economic Development Oleg Fomichev. In addition, the suspension of Turkish investments will affect the dynamics of investment, and through it to the GDP, said Deputy Minister (according to "Interfax" quotes).

Another negative effect - increased geopolitical risks, the pressure on the investment and on the ruble continues Tikhomirov. But much more serious long-term consequences could be, he said: the rejection of "Turkish stream" will lead to the fact that Russia will either have to somehow come back to the "South Stream", or establish relations with Ukraine, or to refuse to supply gas to Europe. This deadlockin energy policy, which has not only economic but also political consequences, said Tikhomirov. It is not excluded that a trade war with Turkey force Russia to cooperate more closely with Europe, but only if you first go to meet the EU itself, said Tikhomirov. Mitigation of the embargo on the import of EU products is not discussed, parries a senior government official, besides the products out there are not interchangeable.