Tesla will not survive

The assets of all auto giants is ten times greater than that of Tesla. Not only the new technologies are important, but also the extent of their use and state support.
Origin source
In 2015, it produced about 90 million cars in the world: 24 million in China, 21 million in the European Union, 12 million in the US and 8 million in Japan. Of this amount, just less-half accounts for electric vehicles (Statistics classifies them elektroavtobusy and hybrid cars); the face of the automobile industry is the Tesla, which produced 50,000 cars last year. Tesla is growing rapidly, up to 30% per year (the world automobile industry is growing at 4-5%), but the increase in fleet of electric vehicles has been slow, despite the support of the authorities, limiting the registration of new petrol cars, as in Norway, or charge fees up to $ 10 000 in Shanghai. According to forecasts, the mass transition to electric cars in a few years will start middle class US, Western Europe (it will mostly passenger cars and light trucks) and Japan. But there is more than half the cars will consume gasoline for 10-15 years. In poorer countries, this process will drag on for 20-25 years, in China, for example, it will affect primarily buses.

An obstacle to the rapid growth of electric consumption will be a network of chargers and service. Tesla itself had investirovatin Electrical stations in California, where most often buy electric cars. Oil companies have invested in them. But the style of life of Americans favors Tesla - millions of car owners live in their own homes with garages or parking lots, where you can recharge the car. In the EU, it is difficult even for elite housing owners.

Does Tesla overtaking other companies in the automotive industry? Leaders remain the same - American GM and Ford, the Japanese Toyota, the German Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler. Chinese manufacturers will not be able to become a world leader, despite the enormous potential of its market, its development rests on the purchasing power of the population and the authorities' policy. The Chinese authorities have put emphasis on public transport due to congestion and environmental problems. Advanced expensive cars will be imported to China, and export their technological innovation is unlikely - it is difficult to impose their standards on other countries. Today's trend - it is the disappearance of independent companies that go out of business in France, Italy, Russia, India and China. Even the high capitalization of the company founded by Elon Musk in part on the expectation that Tesla cancease to be independent. For the automotive industry leader it is too small and not quite a car company. Its strength in innovation (and hence the high capitalization), but not in the ability to capture markets, not marketing, not when. Motor vehicle requires a large concentration of resources - with comparable capitalization of the productive assets of any auto giant is ten times greater than that of Tesla. It is important not only new technologies, but also the extent of their use, state.

Tesla - an expensive asset for traditional automakers, and it can become a target for the absorption of IT-giants, there were rumors about a deal with Apple and Google. Tesla - one of the leaders, for example, in the area of ​​unmanned vehicles that can become part of the trend of the economy of the joint consumption, sharing economy. Auto giant has followed this trend. Toyota has invested in Uber, Volkswagen - in Gett, and GM - in Lyft. Companies feel that the model of joint consumption will change the principles of car use. After 20 years of owning the machine is still today own a horse.

Industry leaders understand the threat they pose to Karshering services - the judicious use of the fleet, reducing purchases of new cars. Automakers are trying to drive a wedge between the driver and the service sector by investing in karshering services. GM has already begun to test this model in Chicago, running in conjunction with the service Lyft Express Drive. It allows you to take almost free GM cars for rent and earn traffic, sharing profits with the automaker.

What to expect from the car industry in the next decade? Increases in the production of fuel-efficient hybrids, then the growth of investment in electric vehicles and infrastructure for them and most importantly - a breakthrough to a new level of efficiency and safety of cars. This will leave China and other emerging markets outside of the car market in developed countries.