October 14 in Yerevan took place the summit of heads of states - members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). On it gathered the presidents of the five countries, but no more or less important document was signed and it was not. It seems no accident - as the learned "Our Version" in the near future the CSTO may cease to exist.
On the summit was attended by the presidents of Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Perhaps, the main intrigue that somehow revived what was happening, was that Yerevan was unable to attend the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, sending in his place as prime minister. Missed appointment Nazarbayev as officially reported to health: caught a cold and could not attend due to poor health. It is noteworthy that earlier for the same reason the Kazakh president canceled his visit to Azerbaijan. According to experts, this way the Kazakh leader responds to the April aggravation of the Karabakh conflict.
CSTO decided on terrorists
Another intrigue was the situation in Karabakh. Being etc.inimayuschey party Yerevan hoped that the summit will adopt a statement on the Karabakh issue, but as a result it is officially not even discussed. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that on the sidelines of the CSTO colleagues expressed their readiness to provide assistance in reached earlier in Vienna and St. Petersburg agreement designed to reduce tensions in the conflict zone, to stabilize the situation and move the peace process. Well, of course, rule out the possibility of a military solution to the conflict.
At the final briefing, it was stated that the summit adopted a number of documents aimed at strengthening the CSTO potential in the fight against international terrorism. In fact, to solve this problem, the state only agreed to form a single list of terrorist organizations. From now on, "Dzhabhat en-Nusra" and "Islamic State" terrorist recognized not only in Russia, but in all the countries - participants of the CSTO. Perhaps this is the most significant document, which was signed by five presidents. Such truncated agenda, according to experts, saysb apparent CSTO crisis. Another symptom of the disease is the fact that it was not possible even to take duty final resolution. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, and all complained that some of the agreement, which were discussed at the summit, not pulling on the level of presidents.
It is noteworthy that at this summit has not been a decision on the appointment of the new Secretary General of the organization. Recall that the positions of the CSTO Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha, whose term ends this year, on a rotating basis to replace the representative of Armenia. This issue will be discussed again at the end of this year, when the next summit will be held in St. Petersburg. However, experts say that to appoint a new head of the CSTO, will probably have no reason to.
Organization destroy internal conflicts
The CSTO was established on the basis of the Collective Security Treaty signed on 15 May 1992 by Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The number of countries - participants of the organization is constantly changing, at different times of the CSTO members were virginsive countries. Now it consists of six states - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan. Uzbekistan suspended its membership in 2012. Azerbaijan and Georgia withdrew its membership in the organization.
Greater integration into the CSTO tried to achieve due to the strengthening of the military component. Today Collective Rapid Reaction Forces of the CSTO (CORF) consist of formations and units of permanent combat readiness. The total number of RRF is estimated at about 20 thousand. People, of whom half are Russian soldiers. In 2008, Russia was the proposal to create an alliance on the basis of the CSTO, transforming it from an amorphous structure to a real military and political alliance. It claimed that the reform of the Union will begin with Central Asian areas, where a large military grouping of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be created. To do this, it planned to create 10 battalions of well-trained and equipped, able to respond quickly to an emergency situation worsening. In addition, the CSTO intended to form the Russian-Armeniansical and Russian-Belarusian group. In the future, it planned to create a united air defense system of communication and control of the CSTO countries armies. One was to be a military-industrial complex. However, these plans have remained in my dreams.
The low credibility of the organization's experts explain the fact that the CSTO was not initially the most successful political alliance since its members are very different potentials - both military and political, and economic. Another significant disadvantage of weakening the organization - internal contradictions between the CSTO countries. For example, stay sharp border problems between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have not solved the Tajik-Uzbek contradictions. Throw in the fact that the Central Asian states are extremely reluctant to become involved in issues that do not concern them directly in the region. Over the years, the stumbling block for the organization is the Karabakh conflict. The dilemma lies in the fact that Armenia is a CSTO member, and therefore has the right to a formal-legal point of view count on the help of allies, but in fact there is no guarantee Yerevan tKuyu help. All the controversy surrounding the CSTO and the internal contradictions increasingly lead to the fact that the organization not only become authoritative in the international arena, but also, perhaps, for the inefficiency cease to exist.
Perendzhiev Alexander, an expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists:
- The complexity of the situation is that all the CSTO member states, except Russia, have entered into this organization in order to minimize costs to ensure its national security. In fact, in six participants one intention - Moscow must ensure their military security and provide the latest types of weapons on a preferential basis. Allies demand preferences, but are not willing to work together with Russia on a global scale. At the same time they consider themselves free of any serious rapprochement steps in the military-political space, even where Russia is actively expresses their interests and needs support. A good example - the operation in Syria, which is actually supported only in Armenia, the other CSTO states pointedly turned away to the side. On the creation of any such coalitions Unionnicknames for the CSTO does not even have to say - they pointedly did not participate in all the complicated military and political issues. They fear that, being too close to Russia, they will come into conflict with the US, but they do not need it, on the contrary, they tend to show their loyalty to the Americans and NATO. In fact, most of the countries of the CSTO consider its membership in this organization as a kind of lever for political bargaining with Moscow.
I would like to pay special attention: despite the fact that Russia is in a difficult financial situation, it continues to provide assistance to its allies and weapons, and a variety of other projects. I am sure that more than Russia, to ensure no one would help the national security of these countries. Now the organization is being tested for durability: aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the war in Syria, hybrid warfare against Russia - all this has exposed the problems of CSTO, clearly showed that the military-political organization is undergoing a systemic crisis. But, despite all the problems, the CSTO will continue to exist to the extent that, as Russia will increasingly povyshatits geopolitical influence. Possible even more optimistic scenario: there will be new participants, including those from abroad, as an option - Iran.