A large-scale program to modernize TPPs for 1.5 trillion rubles. risks to start in a reduced form, since by the beginning of the 2020s in the Russian Federation, probably, there will be neither a domestic nor a localized high-power gas turbine. German Siemens is ready to complete localization of its machines not earlier than 2022–2023, and Russian turbines, as it is believed in the Ministry of Industry and Trade, will be released into the series only by 2024. Experts confirm that in three years, by the beginning of commissioning of modernized TPPs, it will be difficult to develop or localize equipment, but perhaps there will not be much demand for gas turbines.
In the near future, German Siemens is not ready to fully localize the production of high-capacity gas turbines (GTBM) in Russia, admitted at the Russian Energy Week (RAN) Siemens Russia’s head of the Energy and Gas Production Department in Russia Oleg Titov. According to him, the company is talking about the SGT5-2000E model (187 MW, partly localized by CTGT - Siemens JV with Power Machines). “Up to 2022–2023, we apparently don’t have time to heat the hot part (blades and combustion chamber -“ Kommersant ”) to localize it,” said Mr. Titov, suggesting “somehow consider the possibility of increasing the localization period” He confirmed Siemens’s position on readiness to localize the turbine in the Russian Federation by 100%, adding that the company can also invest in the modernization of factories producing blades. About $ 4 million Siemens can invest in the continuation of the localization of turbines based on a joint venture with Silmash, Mr. Titov said.
Now the Russian Federation is opening up a market for energy equipment up to 1.5 trillion rubles, launching a program for the modernization of thermal power plants. The first selection of projects will be held at the end of the year, the entries should begin as early as 2022. The program requires a high level of localization, including on GTBM. The Russian Federation does not have its own technology, the only producer of such machines in the country is STGT, but the hot part of this product is imported.
The attempt to resuscitate the Russian GTD-110-M consortium of Rosnano, Inter RAO and the UEC Rostec has not yet led to successful results. Silmash declared its readiness to develop its turbine. At the RAN, the head of the company, Timur Lipatov, noted that "there is a decision that Power Machines will do this, the question remains - whether alone or with Siemens." According to him, while the localization of foreign turbines is going “by iron”, there is no research and development in the Russian Federation and turbines are being made “according to the sent drawings”.
Vasily Osmakov, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said in an interview with Kommersant on October 3, noting that the state “needs full localization” in order to “produce and develop these competencies in the Russian Federation in force majeure situations” documentation, intellectual rights. "
The state intends to allocate 7 billion rubles. on the development of GTBM, and now it is decided who will receive them. The Ministry of Energy estimated the market in 2020–2035 in 80 turbines of 50–180 MW, the head of Siemens in Russia, Alexander Liberov, spoke of three to six turbines per year. The number of bidders for orders is increasing: Vasily Osmakov said “Kommersant” that negotiations are underway with the American GE. It was confirmed on October 5 by Reuters by the head of Inter RAO Boris Kovalchuk (the holding’s joint venture with GE makes 77 MW turbines, localization is incomplete). According to him, Inter RAO "is actively discussing and has practically reached agreement that they (GE.-" Kommersant ") are ready to go to almost complete localization" with "technology transfer" - both in the 77 MW turbine and in the car at 185–195 MW.
The decision can be made within one or two blocks, clarified Mr. Kovalchuk. However, according to Kommersant’s information, the proposal of Inter RAO about the complete localization of GE has not yet been answered. Against the background of the company's sanctions, the United States is more cautious about European behavior with counterparties from the Russian Federation. But for GE, there should be no problems here, believes Herbert Smith Freehills partner Alexei Panich: “Inter RAO is not in the US blacklist, there are no sectoral sanctions in the energy sector, and if this is not connected with the Crimea, then there are no risks for the company ".
But when Siemens is not ready to speed up localization, the question of who can become a supplier of GTBM is open. Vasily Osmakov told “Kommersant” that the Ministry of Industry and Trade regards as “reasonable and meeting the interests of the Russian power engineering industry” those parameters for gas turbines that are planned to be included in Government Decree No. 719 (rules for recognizing Russian products). “The requirements for localization of the hot section are beginning to be effective from January 1, 2021,” he noted, confirming that negotiations on the localization are continuing. “We expect that by 2024 all three types of our turbines - 40–80 MW, 100–130 MW and 150–190 MW - will be put into commercial operation,” the deputy minister added.
Yury Melnikov, a senior electrician at the Power Engineering Center of Skolkovo Moscow School of Management, considers the estimated time to create a fully domestic gas turbine at three years “overly optimistic against the background of the complete lack of successful experience in creating such machines since the USSR”. Siemens and GE with Russian partners, he said, have gained considerable experience in the supply and localization of turbines in the Russian Federation, he noted, but for them “three years before full localization will be a challenge.” Mr. Melnikov said that the modernization of TPP focuses mainly on the replacement of steam turbines and boilers, and there is no need to expect a serious demand for powerful gas turbines.