The ruble, oil and advanced market

Why soon only very few people will be interested in Russia's foreign policy ambitions.
Firstly, because the price of oil. The price of the ruble - it's just a function of oil prices: it is cheaper than the cheaper and it. Oil prices dropped to 85, that's ruble fell.

Secondly, due to the volume of money supply. In December 2008, the price of oil fell to $ 40. Per barrel, while the dollar was worth 28 rubles. However, in the same December 2008, the money supply was about 12 trillion rubles., But now it is about 30 trillion. rub.

Third, because of the stampede of all, who knows how to think and make money. They ran for a long time, but after the story of the emigration of Ukraine has moved to a new level. Someone unbearable stifling atmosphere of lack of freedom and total paranoia, someone is afraid of his own private business, which has no place in a country where the elite, the approximate to power, live at the expense of export of raw materials, and all private business for its potential independence considers an enemy, given away at the mercy of the siloviki.

But still - one of the main components of the fall of the ruble is the price of oil. We have about this popular "conspiracy theory" to explain this fall desire someone something to annoy Russia.

According to one of them, Americaantsy drop the price of oil, to take revenge on Putin for the fight against their Ukrainian puppet. According to another theory, which, on the contrary, announced Boris Nemtsov, is Saudi Arabia dropped the price to survive the market US shale oil, making it unprofitable.

In fact, the fall in oil prices - it is a change of an era. It reflects the reaction of what I would call the advanced economies (similar to the "extended phenotype" by Richard Dawkins), - response to malignant processes associated with the oil pricing, reaching the last fourteen years.

In the first approximation, it is very simple: drop in oil prices is associated with a decrease in the classic way, with increased supply and demand.

China has become to consume less oil than expected (because the pace of its economic development has slowed), and the United States began to produce more.

Already in 2013 the United States produced about 8 million barrels a day, making them the third largest oil after Saudi Arabia - 11.1 million barrels per day, and Russia - 9.5 million barrels. This year the United States will produce 1.1 million barrelsday more than in the past, in 2015, this production will increase by another 960 thousand. barrels per day. The US has already overtaken Russia in terms of gas production in 2015godu they overtake us, and oil production.

Under these conditions, October 1, Saudi Arabia cut prices, while increasing production. As explained on the Saudis, it is more important to retain a share of the Chinese market than to keep the price. However, the Saudi budget ceases to converge at a price below $ 80. Per barrel, but Saudi Arabia's US $ 800 billion. Reserves, and it declared its readiness to suffer.

In the production of shale oil in the US fall in prices will impact on the critical. Cost of shale oil ranges from 25 to 90 dollars. Per barrel, and at a price below $ 80. Per barrel will be a loss of not more than 4% of the production.

In fact, nothing unexpected fall in prices there. Neither the analyst did not predict Putin's war with Ukraine, but the fact that the US shale oil would bring down prices, almost all indicated.

But in fact this whole story is much deeper. This story is not just about the oil - is the story of a tectonic shift in the energy market, followed by high energy prices and unjustified political advantages provided by these petrokratiyam prices.

For most of the XX century in the energy component of the final price of the product was, to put it mildly, a little. Until 1973, the oil price does not exceed $ 3. Per barrel, as a result of the oil embargo in 1973 it rose to 12 Dold.; the shock of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait has driven oil to 17 dollars. per barrel right up to 36 October 1990, in 1996 they accounted for 20 USD., in 1998, fell to 11, calling Russia's default. Even after adjusting for inflation - a little.

In other words, for most of the XX century oil did not cost to the civilized world has developed some ingenious ways of its production or deployment of troops in the oil fields. It was easier to buy the low-cost product from the black box, and that there is this black box to do with money - built palaces for Saudi princes or bought bread for the collective farms - were generally not important.

After China began to rapid economic growth and the world added 400 million people who use nat first world prices jerked up, and raw material appendages of the free world in a few years turned into petrokratii - overflowing with money and ambition regimes, whose political paranoia was reinforced by the oil windfall.

And then the inevitable happened: the market reaction. If something brings superprofits, the free market society will always find a way is something to produce. Would not it be shale oil, there would be something else.

But oil is not limited. In the United States have worked really self-defense mechanisms, and plunged into a deep sleep free world suddenly realized that for windfall provided petrokratiyam paranoid and regions will have to pay heavily. It is thanks to expensive oil irresponsible regimes and ideologies with delusions of grandeur, that somewhere in the late XIX century, were the subject of ridicule of Western civilization, suddenly become the major regional powers, the recoverable defects of the economy foreign rudeness.

It is primarily concerned with not even the Kremlin, and the "Islamic state." Did you notice, for example, Thuover the last couple of months in the West as a silent many people of good will, protesting against the use of drones and torture in Guantanamo?

It can be assumed that the fall in oil prices is over a new equilibrium. Prices reached a new level and never longer (except that very short term) will not drop to 20-40 dollars. Per barrel. Oil is likely in the foreseeable future will be 75-90, and the ruble will be, respectively, in the region of 45-50 rubles. per dollar.

This will allow the Russian budget, calculated at 93 dollars. Per barrel, to make ends meet (every dollar, which falls oil, is the budget 2 billion USD., But every ruble, which drops the dollar, bringing the budget 180 billion rubles). .

In general, strongly reduced oil rent, and the world's oil revenues will be redistributed in favor of the free world. That is not in our favor - all Russians, not just the Kremlin elite.

Unfortunately, the last few years the Russians have lived beyond their means. We have received more money than they earned. Easy to see when you look at our neighboring countries - Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Thuthe inhabitants of these countries had approximately the same with the Russian original level after the collapse of the USSR, work more and receive less.

It is unlikely that this will cause a critical discontent with the regime or temper his ambitions, but most likely, it will reduce the effect of these foreign ambitions.