The Russian authorities are short of 2 trillion rubles in 2017

Even the Russian Ministry of Finance cannot scrape together enough money for the military, road construction and special medicine. In 2019-2020, the government will need another 4 "extra" trillion rubles.
2018 in terms of the divergence of applications of ministries for budgetary expenditures with real plans of the Ministry of Finance for spending will be a record. As of September 6, the claims of the following year remain uncoordinated for 1.8 trillion rubles, for 2019 - by 2.2 trillion rubles, for 2020 - 2.4 trillion rubles. Unlike in 2017, when the budget deficit could be covered by the remnants of the Reserve Fund, next year there is no such opportunity, as there is no capacity of the public debt market for growth of loans. The main non-recipients of funds are military, road builders and public health services in the Federal Medical and Biological Agency.

"Kommersant" became aware of data about the applications of ministries and departments not approved by the Ministry of Finance (mainly due to lack of sources of funds) for budgetary financing of 2018-2020 as of September 6. Most likely, most of these expenses before the consideration of the draft budget in the government will not be able to get financing - the de facto budget has already been drawn up this week, and the size of the discrepancy between the applications of budget recipients and the Ministry of Finance's capabilities this year is record high.

The financial department separately calculates requests for expenditures of an "investment" and "current" nature. As of 2018, the total amount of uncoordinated requests for investment expenditures is 559 billion rubles, for the current - 1.27 trillion rubles, which in total is 1.85% of GDP (the base scenario of the Ministry of Economy for the next year). In 2019, the divergence of desires with reality - 744 billion rubles. investment expenditures and 1.413 trillion rubles. current expenses (in the aggregate - 2.187 trillion rubles, or 2.1% of GDP), in 2020 - 829 billion rubles. investment expenditures and 1.572 trillion rubles. current (2.40 trillion rubles in total, 2.1% of GDP).

Essentially, the applications of the agencies significantly exceed the planned budget deficit for 2018-2020. However, the next budgetary three-year period is fundamentally different from the previous ones - even involving the joint Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, the financial department will not be able to satisfy 50% of applications in principle. Moreover, with the program of borrowing in the OFZ market stated in the draft budget, about 1 trillion rubles. in a year it is almost impossible to satisfy applications and through increasing the national debt - this is unlikely to be allowed by the capacity of the domestic financial market, which state companies also claim with their loans and investment programs. Budget conservatism, preached by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, comes by itself - by the force of things, and not by a political decision.

The structure of unfunded applications contradicts intuitive notions about the requests of agencies. So, they are almost not connected with the problems of execution of the "May decrees" of Vladimir Putin. As of 2018, among the unsatisfied applications, the largest problematic item of expenditure is not the state program, but the non-program part: the Defense Ministry's applications for 485 billion rubles are not satisfied, and this is mostly not armaments, but requests for indexation of various kinds of allowances. Unsatisfied applications for the "closed part" of non-investment expenses amount to 118 billion rubles. This is less than the lack of success for medical professionals (181 billion rubles in 2018), but do not give money mainly to the Ministry of Health, but to the Federal Medical and Biological Agency: 126 billion rubles. is not on the centralization of regional blood collection systems and the "antiterrorist protection" of this system (the Ministry of Finance can understand that the history of terrorist attacks on a blood transfusion station is still unknown, although theoretically it is possible). Education is not enough 95 billion rubles. in 2018, of which 60 billion rubles. - to repair schools and new rates of teachers.

The transport system needs another 112 billion rubles, mainly for Russian Railways.

The investment expenditures of the budget are not sufficient in 2018 for the transport sector in general - 320 billion rubles, more than half of the unsatisfied applications, and the main unrequested application is the repair program by the Federal Road Agency of regional roads for 231 billion rubles. According to the "closed part", the investment agreements agreed by the Ministry of Finance - 87 billion rubles, the state program "Housing" - 38 billion rubles., Another 25 billion rubles. is requested without success for the construction of new schools, 15 billion rubles for cultural needs, 12 billion rubles for tourism development in Russia.

If oil prices are kept, the application of the budget rule and the waste of all additional oil and gas revenues from exceeding the price of a barrel of $ 40 per barrel will not be enough to satisfy applications, calculations for spending the NWF on indexing salaries and pensions to military and security officials are also hardly justified. Apparently, the only conditional "reserve" of the White House remains the program of the matkapital - its fate for the next years, according to Kommersant, should be decided next week at meetings in the government. However, even the redirection of all means of "demographic support" to the military, transport workers and special doctors will not cover a quarter of their requests.

Pressure on the Ministry of Finance in the new situation does not make sense. The department of Anton Siluanov now, unlike in 2015-2017, does not even have the technical ability to find money for all applications without raising taxes. Increasing the dividends of state-owned companies to 50% of profits will not solve the problem either, as will the withdrawal of undistributed profit of Rosneftegaz - up to 1 trillion rubles, thus obtained in budget revenues, will provide only 15% of the declared three-year requirements, or 45% of investment requests of agencies - but, obviously, will appropriately reduce investment of state companies.

To increase the "amount of budget space" (see the interview of deputy head of the Ministry of Finance Vladimir Kolychev to Kommersant on September 7), it is only possible to quickly improve the efficiency of government spending (which did not happen before), or sharply increasing the profitability of state companies and their transfers to the budget - 2018-2020 to large-scale privatization of state assets by 1-1.5 trillion rubles. in year. The first and second options are not realizable within three years, the third looks only a little more realistic in the light of sanctions, but politically, apparently, is impossible. 2018, thus, can become a year of sharp increase in the internal struggle in the government for resources - they will be possible from the next year even with a certain increase in GDP growth rates only to be taken away from the neighboring department.