The Russian economy is losing the non-primary sector

In January-April 2018, profit growth was recorded only in commodity companies, the rest decreased their performance.
Origin source
The Russian economy continues to strengthen the commodity bank: while the exporters of natural resources save super profits, companies that are not connected with the oil and gas pipe can not get out of the financial pit.

In January-April, the total profit of Russian enterprises grew by 10% - up to 3.543 trillion rubles, Rosstat reported.

The balanced financial result after last year's drawdown returned to the level of 2016, however this success was almost completely ensured by the export of mineral raw materials abroad.

The profit of oil and gas corporations soared twice (to 1.018 trillion rubles), in the mining sector as a whole - 1.6 times (to 1.3 trillion rubles). The increase in tariffs allowed to earn 16% more for companies selling electricity and heat.

The non-raw materials sector remained a stranger to this holiday: the profit of agricultural organizations fell by 25.1% (to 78.6 billion rubles), manufacturing industry - by 3.6% (to 849 billion rubles).

The entire construction industry, which employs more than 40,000 organizations, earned only 8.2 billion rubles for 4 months, or 0.2% of the total economic profit.

Retailers, traumatized by a 10 percent drop in the incomes of the population, recorded only insignificant improvement of results - the profit grew by 2.3%.

The profit of organizations engaged in real estate transactions has collapsed almost threefold.

The share of unprofitable business in the whole country reached 34.2%, which became the maximum for the last 4 years.

Slow, but true necrosis of the non-resource sector is the result of the government's budget policy, says Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest: The Ministry of Finance buys the currency for oil revenues from prices above $ 40 per barrel and does not strengthen the ruble.

As a result, commodity exporters are able to convert foreign exchange earnings into a larger volume of ruble mass, which then flows into the budget, making it surplus for the first time since 2011.

But for a manufacturing sector dependent on imported equipment, as well as a business tied to domestic demand, such a policy is disastrous: "The budget rule at high oil prices promotes us by leaps and bounds toward the raw material economy," Tremasov said.

According to the index of entrepreneurial confidence in non-primary industries, Russia now occupies the last but one place in Europe, he adds: since the beginning of the year the indicator has decreased from minus 1.1 to minus 3.5 points.

A further blow to non-raw materials business will be the increase in the tax burden, warns the director of the Center for Economic Research at the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovich: due to the growth of VAT to 20%, first and foremost high- and medium-technological branches of the manufacturing industry will suffer, where a high share of costs for intermediate consumption is observed.

"According to Rosstat, one of the largest in terms of the share of intermediate consumption - about 80% of costs - is the production of food and beverages, and the final consumer of food products through the wholesale and retail chain is, in turn, the population," recalls Ostapkovich.

The share of Russia's energy exports reached a maximum in 4 years

The Russian economy continues to plunge into dependence on exports of the simplest mineral raw materials, on the proceeds of which technologies and consumer goods are bought.

The share of fuel and energy products in the total export structure, which fell along with oil prices, returned to the levels of 2014, the FCS statistics published on Wednesday show.

Of the $ 140 billion earned by the Russian economy in January-April, hydrocarbons accounted for almost two-thirds (64.2%).

Kerosene managed to sell 18.1% more, coal - 17% more; The export of gas increased by 5.3%, while that of oil remained practically unchanged.

The products of high conversion - machinery and equipment - accounted for only 5.6% of exports; The share of food in sales to external markets could not be increased (5.3%), the share of chemical products fell from 6.6% to 6%.

Thanks to the rise in oil prices and the contract prices for Russian gas tied to them, the country gained 26.8% more currency and increased purchases of imported technologies and consumer goods.

Total imports increased by 18.6% - to $ 75 billion, of which 46% was spent on machinery and equipment.

Import of electrical equipment increased by 28%, mechanical equipment - by 17.3%, tools and optical devices - by 16.6%. Import of cars jumped almost 1.5 times.

Procurement of food abroad increased both in monetary terms (by 10.3%) and in physical volume (by 9.6%). Deliveries of sunflower oil increased by 2.3 times, milk and cream by 19.6%, cheeses and cottage cheese by 9.7%, fresh and frozen fish by 7.8%. Imports of clothing and footwear jumped 16.8%.

"We have created an ideal model for the exchange of raw materials for beads," said Yakov Mirkin, head of the International Capital Markets Department at the IMEMO RAS: as a result, the economy depends very heavily on external factors, from demand for raw materials and, accordingly, from the euro and dollar exchange rate, , from carry carry traders.

From imported equipment we depend on 70-90%, on consumer goods and non-food products - by more than 50-60%, "Mirkin lists, citing the example: in Russia, about 300-350 metal cutting machines per month are manufactured per month, or only 6 -7% of the amount that is eliminated as a result of wear.

To exit from the vicious circle, privatization, demonopolization, creating a market environment, tax incentives and reducing the tax burden are necessary, Mirkin believes, otherwise the "frozen economy" guarantees stagnation, a growth rate of about zero, a critical dependence on imports and crises every 15- 20 years.