The US will overtake Russia in oil production in 2018

Such a forecast was provided by the International Energy Agency.
By the end of this year, the United States could become the world's largest oil producer, surpassing not only Saudi Arabia, but also the current leader - Russia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts. But it does not give specific figures.

In January, oil production in Russia amounted to 10.9 million barrels per day, Interfax reported to Central Energy Department of the fuel and energy sector. The US Energy Information Administration has published the final data for November - 10 million barrels per day (preliminary estimate for December - 10.1 million barrels, in January - 10.2 million barrels). This is a historical maximum - higher than even the record of 1970 and above Saudi Arabia.

The increase in production in the US is the main factor that will influence the world oil market in 2018, the IEA writes. Only in the three autumn months, oil production in the United States grew by an enormous amount - 846,000 b / d - and continues to grow under the influence of increased oil prices and declining oil reserves in the country, the agency writes.

It also notes that the cost of production in the US has declined significantly under the impact of a fall in prices in 2014-2015. Thanks to the development of technology, US producers were able to reduce production costs to $ 30-40 per 1 barrel, said Moody's vice president Denis Perevezentsev.

As a result, production growth in the US can fully compensate for the increase in global oil consumption in 2018. The IEA predicts that the latter figure could grow by 1.4 million barrels per day to 99.2 million barrels per day.

Now the OPEC + deal is under way, under which Russia has pledged not to produce oil more than 10.9 million barrels per day (a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day). The other countries participating in the deal should cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day. This is necessary in order to balance supply and demand in the market, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has repeatedly stated.

According to the minister, by the end of 2017 the market has more or less stabilized. Recognizes this and the IEA: OPEC + virtually eliminated the excess oil in the market, the report said. At the same time, the agency writes that there are still risks of increasing oil production in shale deposits.

However, Novak himself does not believe in these risks. He points out that in the next 20 years it will be necessary to increase production by 20 million barrels per day to compensate for the falling production and another 10 million barrels per day to meet the growth in demand for oil. "No slate mining can do this," the minister said.