Transaero was marked down

The company may go under the control of Aeroflot for a ruble.
The largest private and second largest airline transport Russian "Transaero", the debts which, according to "Kommersant", reached 260 billion rubles., Can move under the control of the state of "Aeroflot" for a nominal fee of 1 ruble. As a result, the state company consolidates more than 50% of the Russian air transport market. The idea was supported by creditors "Transaero" and the state, but the deal is a lot of questions and unclear the fate of the carrier, which has already recommended to stop the sale of tickets for flights after 1 December.

The interdepartmental commission chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov yesterday approved the consolidation of the airline "Transaero" in "Aeroflot" group. According to unofficial information, it is actually a packet transmission in the 75% plus 1 share for 1 rbl. In "Transaero" they expressed support for the decision "in the interests of further development of civil aviation and creating one of the world's largest air transport group." The "Aeroflot" reported that the activity of "Transaero" will be completely restructured and the company will be integrated into the group. One andSources "Kommersant", participated in the meeting, adding that "the preservation of the brand," Transaero "not provided". In Mr. Shuvalov's secretariat declined to comment.

"Transaero" was founded in 1990 in the park 106 Boeing 777, 747, 767, 737, Airbus A321, Tu-214 and two Tu-204S cargo. During January - July has transported 7.5 million passengers in 2014 - nearly 13.2 million people. Basic airport - Domodedovo and Vnukovo airports, route network - 260 domestic and international destinations. In the first half net loss under RAS -. 8.5 billion rubles, revenues - 50.4 billion rubles. General obligations on the basis of 2014 -. About 160 billion rubles, including long-term - 78.1 billion rubles, short -. 81.2 billion rubles. Accounts receivable increased by almost 70%, to 36.2 billion rubles.

"Transaero" since last year, is considered one of the most troubled airlines, with the Ministry of Economy, wrote "Kommersant" on August 6 has openly stated that he considers the inevitable withdrawal from the carrier market, accumulated debts. Yesterday the Ministry "Kommersant" said that such a decision "the most correct" in "fairly difficult situation ": the company will be able to repay the debt owed to creditors by ensuring obligations to passengers but, says one source." Kommersant ", the decision to transfer the carrier" Aeroflot "actively discussed only last week, all completely defined yesterday.

According to the source "b", during the committee meeting raised the question of creditor banks "Transaero", "disgruntled airline financial model." A source in the White House confirmed that the banks - the "main beneficiaries" in this situation, adding that "the proposal itself at the meeting voiced German Gref (Chapter Sberbanka.-" b ") with respect to y (Assistant to the President the results held two days prior to this meeting RF.- "b") Andrey Belousov. " The meeting was also attended by representatives of VTB, Vnesheconombank, Russian Agricultural Bank, which agreed that "the airline fell, the real crisis scenario, it does not have," says "Kommersant" source. According to him, the debts of "Transaero" reached 260 billion rubles., Including 150 billion rubles. to leasing companies and "tens of billions of rubles" for fuels. CEO and co-owner Olga Pleshakova carrier while at a meeting not attended, said one of the interlocutors "b", without specifying who exactly is "Transaero".

"The financial situation of" Transaero "has deteriorated so that banks can give additional loans on a very limited period and under strict conditions, but in the future the airline would have to stop anyway," - says one of the interlocutors "b". According to them, the Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Transport, as well as bankers, considered a financial model "Transaero" on 2015-2020 years "false, incorrect and elusive."

The interlocutor of "Kommersant" noted that the planned results were presented without anti-crisis measures and studies, without regard to currency risk and are not supported by the statistics of Federal Air Transport Agency. "Transaero", he said, planned to maintain a working model that focuses on international shipping, without changing the fleet and routes and to achieve profitability in 2016 and 2017 receive 18-22 billion rubles. year net profit. But the stagnation of the market, falling incomes, competition with the "Aeroflot" does not give rise to the growth of tariffs and loading: the passenger traffic on international flights of Russian airlines in six months fell by 14%. The assumption of the tariff increase of 27% over two years is incorrect, according to the source "b", as well as plans to "Transaero" to increase by 30-60% efficiency of the park: flying performance of 400 hours a month on the plane "have no analogues in the world."

According to "Kommersant", the Ministry of Transport in August ordered the Transport Clearing Chamber to reserve part of the proceeds from the sale of tickets to passengers export of "Transaero". Yesterday, according to "Kommersant", Russian Aviation Company submitted a recommendation to stop the sale of tickets from 1 December. The Ministry of Transport and the Federal Air Transport Agency declined to comment. Source: "b" added that the depth of sales from "Transaero" - not less than six months, the company now has left more than 2 million tickets sold. According to him, the government was held hostage: the company threatened to stop large-scale collapse, but the government support would not solve the problems.

At the same time the source of "Y", familiar with the position of "Aeroflot", emphasizingie, that the situation surrounding the deal is more than unclear. Guidelines state-controlled carrier is ready to it only in the case of more than 75% of the shares, but the capital of "Transaero" is fragmented, and "it is not clear who can be consolidated to provide such a package." Unofficially, it is believed that the company controlled by Alexander and Olga Pleshakova. According to SPARC, in the end of July, 51.3% of "Transaero" belonged to the citizens of Russia, and the rest - various Russian CJSC and OJSC.

Unclear and debt fate of "Transaero" (VTB and Sberbank declined to comment). "When debt restructuring after the transaction risk on them will be judged not as a risk of private and problematic, although a very large company, as well as lower risk" kvazisuverena "" Aeroflot ", the default is better for the banks", - says the source "b" in one of the major banks. But the group's consolidated debt load, "Aeroflot", the total debt which at the end of June amounted to 169.7 billion rubles., Will be very great, while, according to the source "b", the state "will minimize direct financialSupport of ".

At the same time, believes the head of the control operations on the Russian stock market IR "Freedom Finance" George Vashchenko, "synergies from the transaction is not expected", "Aeroflot" will receive more than the old park long-haul aircraft with a huge debt to the remediation of Finance will take at least two years. Investors understand this: yesterday on the Moscow stock exchange "Transaero" went up by 40%, and the paper of "Aeroflot" fell by 5.8%. In fact, the main advantage to state-owned companies will lose a strong competitor and an estimated head of analytical service of "airport" Oleg Panteleyev, the consolidation of more than 50% of the Russian air transport market with a view to optimizing freight capacity and route network.

"Aeroflot" will have to change the route network

Rules of the game

One consequence of the merger of the two largest Russian carrier may be an adjustment of the route network "Transaero" and airline "Aeroflot" group. Formally, the latter will significantly increase the number of its flights, the flight possible partial reductions for redundant lines to reduce supply in the market of the need to speak for the past year. But it could complicate that, according to "Kommersant", at a meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov of "Aeroflot" demanded not to allow sharp reductions in staff "Transaero".

Now the flights of "Aeroflot" and "Transaero" basically duplicated the directions from Moscow to the city of the Far East - Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, remarked, "b" the head of analytical services "Airport" Oleg Panteleyev. Now only these two players have regular transport efficient widebody aircraft, he said. But the company's dumping in these areas, "Transaero" imposed tariffs on Far Eastern destinations for the price of 11 thousand rubles.. in one direction, "Aeroflot" has introduced a single rate in the Far East of the city - no more than 18 thousand in both directions.. After the merger at such a low price will not have to count, he said. Mr. Panteleyev added that European lines there jumpingThe base station with Western airlines and sanitation "Transaero" only strengthen the position of the Russian side.