Analysts of the rating agency Fitch believe that VEB will not be able to get rid of non-core banking assets before the end of 2017, as outlined in his strategy. Fitch admits that the sale of subsidiaries of Globex and Svyaz-Bank may take more time from the state corporation or not at all.
In their forecast, analysts took into account the low interest of investors in banking assets, VEB's significant expectations for the sale price, and the poor quality of credit profiles of the banks themselves. In comparison, Bank Globex has a lower asset quality, significant risks in the real estate sector, lower profitability and capitalization, Fitch reported. Sale of banks to new owners with high ratings, for example quasi-sovereign structures or foreign banks, is less likely than selling to private entities with low ratings, the report says.
On May 19, Vnesheconombank Chairman Sergey Gorkov assured that there are three offers from the buyers of Sviaz-Bank and Globex (quoted by Prime), who were interested in the opportunity to buy one bank or both. And although the sale was originally planned for the first half of 2017, Gorkov said, VEB will be able to structure the deal for the sale of these banks not earlier than July. Last Friday, he admitted that "it is impossible to sell these banks with profit, unfortunately" (quotation on "Russia 24").
In 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017, VEB recapitalized and cleared the balance sheet of banks, recalls Fitch (see the cut). Non-performing loans from Sviaz-Bank with overdue for more than 90 days accounted for 8% of the portfolio at the end of 2016 (the reserve for them is 120%), another 5% of the loan portfolio accounted for working restructured loans, mainly secured by collateral. Bank Globex portfolio was overdue by almost a quarter: 27% of non-performing loans as of the end of 2016 (reserve - 112%).
According to unaudited IFRS financial statements Globex, published on Monday, its assets in the first quarter decreased from 156 billion to 143.6 billion rubles, the bank received a loss of 3.9 billion rubles. (800 million rubles for the first quarter of 2016).
Most likely, VEB really will not be able to sell Globex and Svyaz-Bank within the next year, analyst S & P Anastasia Turdyeva agrees: "The question is not only the price, but also what to do with these banks to those who will acquire them." According to Turdiyeva, now the M & A market is inactive, in addition, neither Globex nor Svyaz-Bank has unique advantages. "We assumed that it would be difficult to sell the banks, even at the end of 2015, when VEB announced this intention," she recalled. Last year, both banks were unprofitable and capitalized by VEB, this year it is expected that they will show operating profit, she continues. If the sale of banks takes place, the buyer most likely will be a government agency capable of "supporting banks in a difficult situation," and will continue to develop them, Turdyeva argues, since the sale of these assets also carries reputational risks for VEB.
To sell a large bank is now possible only with a discount to the capital, the executive director of the investment fund Da Vinci Capital Maxim Volkov is convinced. "The banks were cleaned up and recapitalized, so the shareholder obviously does not want to give them away for a pittance," says Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov.
In 2016, VEB bought a 30% stake in the development company Rose Group from Globex Bank, refinanced high-risk loans for 7 billion rubles. In the real estate sector and plans to refinance another 4 billion rubles. By mid-2017 In addition, he replenished his capital by 30 billion rubles.