Other import substitution
The problem of import substitution due to US and EU sanctions on the military-industrial complex (MIC) is made up of several blocks, Industry and Trade Ministry official said. This is, firstly, the replacement of products, which are purchased in the Ukraine, second - electronic components, devices and components, procured in Western countries and their allies, who have imposed sanctions, and thirdly - machine tools for the implementation of the state program on the technical equipment DIC. The recently adopted import substitution program in the defense industry provides that the purchase of individual components and assemblies in the Ukraine will be replaced within a year or two, and such critical systems as gas turbine propulsion systems for ships of the fleet and helicopter engines, - for two to three years. Replacement of electronic components and other high-tech components - a difficult task that may require more than three years, but some of these products will soon be available in China and Belarus, he said. The biggest problem with the machine: both said on Thursday Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin,less than 5% of machinery equipment in the domestic industry produced in Russia. The most realistic way of at least partial import substitution in the purchase of machine tools - the use of the Chinese market, said the expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Konstantin Makiyenko. The first reports about the failure of European manufacturers to supply machines for military enterprises have emerged, he said. According to a top manager of one of the companies "Rostec" Ukrainian term replacement engines can in fact make 3-4 years. This will lead to a decrease in production of helicopters, if the Ukrainian "Motor Sich" completely stop their shipment to Russia in the coming months.
Given that the world's 70% of the radiation-resistant electronic component base is produced and licensed in the United States, the issue of sanctions for the space industry is very serious, says CEO of the Joint Rocket and Space Corporation (ACCD), Igor Komarov: "We are relaxed because we it was advantageous to buy, without developing its own high-tech production. " In the next year and a half the risk, communicationnnyh a shortage of component base for corporate projects there due to pre-purchase the components. To remove the problem in the long term, strategic decision is likely to be as follows: to make the main key components in Russia, Komarov said. "The request for funding or organization of production localization component base of the state will have to" - he admits. It is already clear that we are talking about tens of billions of rubles, but the exact figure of the corporation will be able to call at the end of the year.
ACCD is working with the Russian Space Agency and the Ministry of Industry to use the opportunity created in recent years, the production base. Serious funds invested in the production of electronic components "Rostec" recalls Komarov.
"On reciprocal sanctions, we learned from the newspapers, we did not ask. Of course, we did not expect that they will be hard, "- shared with" Vedomosti "co-owner of a major Russian producer of products. Officials explained that the ban on imports of products from the EU, the US and other countries, who introduced sanctions against Russia will againopment of Agriculture. But the source "Vedomosti" a ban on the supply of imported food is not happy: in the long term it could help his business, but only if it is extended indefinitely, but still significantly reduced the company's turnover. Why did it happen?
Problems with the list
Preparation of Russian response took about two weeks to Western sanctions - the first person in the country assigned to them to develop as soon as the US and EU imposed sanctions against Russian state-owned banks, said a senior official.
All this time there were consultations and discussed various options, he continues, without naming those who participated in the discussion. Businessmen are not asked to recognize each official. But asked relevant agencies - the Ministry of Agriculture and Rosselkhoznadzor. Service is actually asked to bring all the blanks - what products she wanted to ban in recent years, said the source "Vedomosti". Here, he said, and remembered, for example, about the Norwegian salmon: it Rosselkhoznadzor in the past two years frequently occurred pre-enzii - the E. coli found, the salmonella.
Although Norway at that time did not impose sectoral sanctions against Russia (in April, the country has introduced individual sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian officials), its fish and seafood caught in the list of prohibited for import into Russia. Comments could not be obtained in the Rosselkhoznadzor.
"The decision to ban imports of fish taken very quickly and unprofessional" - angry person close to the Federal Agency for Fishery. About the consequences of the ban did not think: the whole processing in the European part of the country because it will rise, because it works on Norwegian raw materials, he says. At the same time the import of canned fish are not banned by creating a paradox: Russian refineries their products will not be able to produce, left without raw materials, and their foreign competitors will be delivered safely canned ready-to-market.
Alternatives Norwegian salmon not agree, a source close to one of the fishing companies. It grows in the ice closed bays with the Gulf Stream, to organize artificially the conditions similar to the natural, it is impossible, but on thesuitable natural sites in Russia really does not grow more than 50 000-70 000 tonnes, while in 2013 it was imported from Norway over 105 000 tonnes of salmon. But this country imported a lot of herring, capelin and mackerel. Well, in addition, a ban on the import of fry tan, without which domestic fish farms will not be able to do import substitution.
It is still quite mild version of the sanctions, said a senior official. Considered much tighter list - for example, proposes to ban the import of products from the UK and Japan, but stopped at a soft option, he explains. But his colleague acknowledges, because of the need to respond quickly happened and lining, the list of prohibited goods to be imported will have to refine. For example, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich has promised in the near future to exclude from the list of fry. A canned fish, according to "Vedomosti", on the contrary, can get into the list of prohibited imports.
The problem with raw materials
Sanctions have become a problem for many people, because not only fish companies, but also other large Russian produDrivers products while also major importers: they import raw materials or of the finished product. "We prepaid a large consignment of beef and pork from the US and the EU, it is in the way, and, apparently, the money we lost because import it can not, the supplier prepayment will not return, and besides, it is not clear what we compensate this volume needed by the plant, "- says an employee of the holding of meat.
Company "Belaya Dacha", one of the largest green manufacturers, working on import substitution the last 15 years and now from spring to early autumn are fully secured by Russian products, says the chairman of the Supervisory Board of OJSC "Belaya Dacha" Viktor Semyonov, but the trouble is that there are groups salads, which are impossible to produce in greenhouses, because it will be very expensive. "We tried to do it, but, unfortunately, it is not competitive - is three times more expensive and of lower quality. For example, iceberg lettuce, the cheapest, the People's salad, it makes no sense to grow in greenhouses. Therefore, winter of our raw materials always come from Europe "- He continues. Refocusing on suppliers from South Africa and from Asia is expensive, he says. Therefore, it is hoped that in the list there will be changes that will have a green salad all year round. "We look forward to any compromise, and in which big decisions are implemented, and small projects will not be destroyed," - says Semenov.
Problems with the terms
Manufacturers say that right now will not be able to significantly increase the volume of production, and a few years later, when imports will be resumed on the additional products will be in demand. "As such sanctions can help? They are not forever, and need long-term support measures, "- said vice-president of one of the largest producers of meat in Russia, ABH" Agribusiness ", Alexander Nikitin. To increase the production of pork, need two or three years - if it is right now to write a business plan to take a loan and begin expansion, he explains. And how then will domestic demand for pork is hard to say.
A similar situation with trout: it can be diluted inarelskih lakes, increasing the production of five years from 15 000 to 50 000 tonnes (this is twice as much as that delivered in 2013 in Norway), but without sanctions such volume market is not needed trout, explains a source close to one of the fish companies.
Those five or six years are needed for the development of dairy farming, gardening and so on., Says Gazprombank analyst Daria Snitko.
Dramatically increase the milk production in Russia in the nearest future is impossible, the expert agrees to the agricultural sector Tatiana Rybalova. Dairy cattle - conservative industry, to reverse the trend of falling yields will require a lot of time and effort, she explains. For example, the project "Accelerated development of livestock" from 2007 to 2012, the government and businesses to invest in dairy farming around $ 11 billion, but the annual gross milk yield by 2013 have increased by less than 3%, the expert drew attention to one of the industry associations.
According to estimates Rybalova, country, trapped in the sanctions list, imported in 2013 about 3.7 million tons of dairy products (in milk equivalent), and even with the growth of the supply companies,do not fall under the ban, and the growth of domestic production remains the question of substitution of about 1.5 million tonnes (in milk equivalent) of this amount. To solve it, we will have to find new suppliers.
Direct positive effects for domestic producers from import ban on products should not expect from the sanctions list of the countries, concludes Snitko. On the one hand, year - agriculture too short term, on the other hand, the industry needs financing system and other support measures.
Problems with support
To help manufacturers, it is necessary to change the state policy in the sphere of agriculture, confident director of the Moscow Region "farm to them. Lenin "Pavel Grudinin. "There is a program of development of agriculture, I would call the program of stagnation or even the collapse of" - he resents. Funding for farmers must come directly from the federal budget, because the regions with scarce budgets do not give money to agriculture, and even if given, then later to obstruct the export of products from the territory which has granted financingation. In addition, the state should help with the solution of infrastructure problems - connection to electricity, gas, road construction, lists GRUDININ.
From Russian sanctions benefits for Russian producers can only be indirect: the authorities have paid attention to agriculture, and real help can provide such support measures, such as editing the entry conditions in the WTO on agriculture and the development of crediting of agricultural enterprises, including interest rate subsidies on loans as well as the targeted economic support program, agrees Nikitin from "Miratorga".
Increase potato production even two times is not a problem, but only if the company manages to increase the capacity of storage products, says CEO of the company "Moscow-on-Don", which specializes in the sale of potatoes and vegetables, Yevgeny Cherepanov. And in order to build more storage facilities are needed or cheap loans, or subsidies, but in the meantime, and loans expensive and difficult to get them, he continues.
It all depends on the state, thenfrom banks or investors are unlikely to consider the embargo on imported products as a driver of growth of the agricultural sector, the chairman of the board of the National Meat Association Sergey Yushin. First of all businesses need to shut down the state debt on subsidies. Also, be sure to declare the producers that will not support sequestration at a time when there is a "tension in the budget," he said.
In addition, the government needs to lend in the first place investors, proven seriousness. "It's no secret that part of the public money we have already lost, or because the company went bankrupt shortly after the start of the project, if any, money skimmed off. Here, it is necessary to fight, then these funds are very limited, would get to a greater extent those who have already shown results, and can do it "- Yushin said. In addition, the state must develop veterinary medicine, because animal disease (foot and mouth disease, African swine fever (ASF), brucellosis) - this is what actually causes serious damage. For pig producers ASF much more thenrmoz than the embargo - an incentive, they openly said at a meeting in the Ministry of Agriculture reminds Yushin. We also need funds to genetics, because this area is very strong dependence on imports.
Problems with the finance
According to estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture, made prior to the embargo, to support agriculture country needed an additional 137 billion rubles. Given the fact that now the producers have received additional opportunities to sell their products, money to support you may need less, he told "Vedomosti" economic bloc official said. It's not an official objection to the Ministry of Agriculture. "We will ask for much more considering the fact that now support is sought not for three years and six years, and in addition, discusses additional measures for financial assistance - such as project financing and the payment of direct costs, such as energy," - he says he.
Now, officials will begin negotiating, and funding need right now, especially since the credit facilities with banks already more expensive, says it is a major producer. Cheapx foreign companies have lost money because of the sector the US and EU sanctions. For example, the Bank suspended the project financing for the production of potato plant construction stock company "Belaya Dacha". The company is now waiting for the decision EBRD's Board of Directors, which will meet in September and looks forward to continued cooperation with the bank, told "Vedomosti" Semenov.
Some of the major breeders say they have no problem to attract loans from banks, but they are worried about the growth of interest rates, said Yushin.
The US and EU have closed the five largest banks access to capital markets, which has led to a noticeable increase in interest rates. Since the beginning of the year the Central Bank has raised the refinancing rate three times - up to 8%, and it is possible that it may still not be repeated again until the end of the year, analysts Promsvyazbanka point. Since early March, interest rates on loans to small businesses grew by 2.8-4.2 n. N., Reported a representative Sberbanka.
"It's not at all that someone will suffer potential losses. President holds APK stress test, as it did after the 2008 crisis, with the financial sector. The main ideaapreta - check how Russia is dependent on imported food, whether the country will be able to feed itself, if the US and the EU to impose a ban on the supply of products in Russia ", - said the executive director of the Fishery Union Sergey Gudkov.