If I tell you that a possible devaluation of the ruble in 2014, the authorities knew five years ago, you probably would not believe me. But it's true. In October 2009, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach (he now works VEB) has written Prime Minister Vladimir Putin more paper dedicated to the country's exit strategy from the previous economic crisis. Klepach has constructed a simple model that's different scenarios of rising oil prices, but the results that the state will receive by using these or other instruments of economic policy.
It turned out roughly as follows. If the exit from the crisis to put at the head of the inflation angle, constantly sterilizing the money supply, pumping out money from the economy - it is possible to strangle her. It will behave sluggishly, cease to respond to stimuli, abandon credits and gradually stops. If you give money to the economy, abandoning the rigid anti-inflationary policy, the ruble strengthened sharply at first, contributing to lower rates on loans, import growth and decay of Russia's real sector, and then, when the balance of payments of the country millIt is negative, dramatically weakened.
The authorities then put on the second option, agreeing to maintain a moderate stimulus and reasonable, as it seemed, the expansion of the money supply. The problem of devaluation decided not to consider the problem: citizens trust the state and get used to the jumps of the course. When the ruble will start to fall due to the fact that Russia buys more than it sells, it will not panic.
As a result, five years later, the country has received two challenges in one package: the attenuation of growth and collapse of the national currency, and both problems were much more serious than one might imagine then.
And this is the fork in the road of 2009 - or stimulate or not to stimulate - was the last actual economic fork in the modern history of Russia. The main problem with the current crisis is that the economic medicine of it does not exist. There are no other fork "to stimulate - not to stimulate." There is a dead end from which it is impossible to go through traditional or non-traditional anti-crisis measures.
The Kremlin and the government noToday is not talking about a full-fledged anti-crisis program for the Russian economy: diagnosis, objectives, means to achieve them. Officials chanting of "action", "support", but avoid talking about something more - on a consistent exit scenarios from the current situation, a strategy the resumption of economic growth in the country. they shrug their shoulders Asked about the anti-crisis plan: the plan and what you do need?
If you collect all the authorities have offered the country in September, you get roughly three columns with a set of arbitrary points. I recently appeared a column with items to support the banking system: foreign currency loans of the Central Bank to banks against collateral of foreign currency loans companies, refinancing, sale of foreign currency earnings schedule, manual control. That column proper anti-crisis: low-key, modest in scale fiscal stimulus farmers, sectors involved in the expected import substitution, a little oil industry, something the industry and again manual control.
This is the third column, the shortest liberalization and freedom instead of money. Amnesty capital, about a catoruyu only know what about it is it is not known, a strange kvazimoratory to check the tax business and the police, which does essentially is illegal and, according to several interlocutors from the government, can not be fixed in the normative act, law or any -So another document: the inspectors have to verify or deny the rights, or the entire liberalization again reduced to manual control. The column ends here - no liberalization, about which so much just there and spoke rapidly in the autumn, it is not liberalization, and psychotherapy for Russian business.
There are a few fantasies on how may look the other columns: domestic support public procurement, importozamestiteley loans, replenish the budget, as it suffered from falling oil prices. Someone in the government said in a half whisper on taxation of raw materials for metallurgy earners a tax on mineral extraction. Someone - a tax amnesty for two or three years for all farmers. But here again we are talking about the poster, not of the system: it is not about accelerating growth andabout solving specific current problems. Growth should accelerate as it were as a result of all these "measures", but when and how - no one can tell.
To go further, to talk about something more, you need to put Dive diagnosed the Russian economy. But to put it inside the power, put it, sitting in the government or the Kremlin is no longer possible today. The space for what officials call a streamlined word "debate" - that there is a space for the production of economic problems and discuss ways of their decision - after Crimea contracted: step right, step left - thoughtcrime, an attempt on the country's sovereignty.
Everyone understands and agrees that this is not a new crisis has crept to Russia because of the angle and not succumbed to the treacherous stab in the back.
And the sanctions and the Cold War, and without them, we crawled into recession since the end of 2013. Sanctions and War accelerated this process, but they were not its source. With this agreement, even President Putin: on sanctions, he writes off 30% of the difficulties faced by the Russian, the other 70% are likely to have some other reason.
On their mobut argue long, but it seems that all of them more precisely formulated Sergei Smirnov, the last in this year's edition of "Commentaries on the state and business" Development Center School of Economics, "the extinction of the entrepreneurial spirit." About sunset the market economy as such wrote Alexei Kudrin and Gurvich Evsey in the article "A new model of growth for the Russian economy," published in the "question of economics."
This diagnosis - in the country do not run out of money, not oil, and capitalism - can not be delivered, sitting in the Kremlin and the Government House. It can not be put inside the system, and therefore adequate treatment should not count. Money can be borrowed, the fall in oil prices soften injections of reserves, and where to get capitalism? How to get it back to Russia? This impasse, saying today liberal economists: corridor of opportunities for slow (? Two years, four years) recovery there, but there is no perspective, no horizon, no sense of the future.
The question of "how to get to the Russian capitalism," not on the agenda of power - this is understandable and President Putin's address to the parliament, and his pressconference, and according to recent statements by high-ranking officials. And it probably means that the country in 2015 is waiting for a new and more profound anti-market restart. Crimea was supposed to lead the country and its leader out of the impasse in which it was in the beginning of his third term. Instead, he provoked the collapse of unstable, shaky state capitalist model of development. Now, to go further, Putin needs from Crimea to build up a new Russia, which simply is no place for obsolete even before capitalism and the free market of the Crimea.